The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes this week rarely included the soft housing market on the risk list, leading outsiders to speculate that the timing for interest rate cuts might be moved forward. Both monetary policy and the economic outlook under Trump's new administration face a recalibration. (Background: SharpLink Gaming approved a $1.5 billion stock buyback plan, can SBET return to its yearly highs?) (Additional context: Koreans are scrambling to buy 'crypto US stocks', BitMine becomes the top target) Fed Chair Powell admitted on Friday that interest rates could be adjusted in September 'depending on the data', which the market interpreted as opening the door to easing, causing a collective rebound in risk markets. However, few noticed that a seemingly bland meeting minute from the Fed earlier this week has already put the real estate market in the spotlight, potentially rewriting the policy rhythm and market direction for the upcoming quarters. New focus revealed in the meeting minutes According to the July minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, decision-makers admitted that 'economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, primarily driven by a slowdown in consumer growth and a decline in residential investment.' Previously, markets focused on inflation curves, but now the cooling housing market has been officially listed as a downward risk to employment, alongside tariffs and impacts from artificial intelligence. 'Economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, primarily driven by a slowdown in consumer growth and a decline in residential investment.' Cold data reflecting the chill in the housing market The numbers provide the most straightforward signal. Although existing home sales in July saw a slight rebound, most months in 2025 are expected to remain flat, while inventory for sale continues to accumulate. According to a report by Fortune on the 23rd, Citi Research pointed out that 'declining home prices are rarely seen outside of a rate hike cycle or recession.' Moreover, the supply side is not optimistic: new single-family housing permits fell to the lowest level since 2019 (excluding the pandemic period), and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) confidence index turned negative in August. Mortgage rates have remained in the 6% range for an extended period, weakening home buying demand and consequently compressing builders' operations. The chain reaction of the housing market slowdown on the economy and policy Historical experience shows that a freeze in residential investment often foreshadows the contours of a recession. Recently, U.S. housing starts have decreased by nearly 24% year-on-year, and new single-family home sales have dropped by approximately 23.7% year-on-year, with up to 27% of properties in once-popular pandemic cities being sold at reduced prices. Although falling home prices may accelerate the cooling of inflation, they simultaneously erode household assets and drag down consumption. For Fed Chair Powell, the pressure is coming from both sides. If interest rates are not cut, the housing market downturn could spread to employment; if rates are cut too early, there is a need to guard against rising inflation. Outlook and risks: how will the market respond In the coming months, housing market and employment reports will influence decision-making. If data continues to worsen, the Fed may initiate an easing cycle more quickly, but mortgage rates are still unlikely to drop significantly in the short term, and home buying demand may be 'stuck halfway up the hill.' Investors also face a dilemma: expectations for rate cuts may help direct funds to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, but if the economic slowdown expands, funds may flow back to safe havens. With the Trump administration just taking office, maintaining the independence of the central bank under political pressure adds variables to this economic chess game. Related reports Ondo will launch Ondo Global Markets on 9/3, listing hundreds of tokenized stocks. Premiums on tokens have dropped, and Bitcoin 'reserve companies' have been overshadowed by U.S. stock IPOs. 'The Fed is starting to worry about the U.S. real estate market: the market is clearly contracting, adding recession concerns.' This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).