1. Introduction
Chainlink, as a representative project of decentralized oracle networks, has gradually formed an irreplaceable position in the cryptocurrency industry since its launch in 2017. Oracles are key infrastructure that connects the blockchain world with real-world data, undertaking core functions such as price data, cross-chain communication, and access to real-world assets (RWA). Against the backdrop of decentralized finance (DeFi), cross-chain ecosystems, and asset tokenization gradually becoming the main narrative of the crypto industry, Chainlink's value and strategic position have become increasingly prominent. The purpose of this report is to systematically analyze the investment logic and medium-to-long-term potential of LINK by integrating macro market trends, RWA industry development, Chainlink's technology and economic model, token value capture mechanisms, competitive landscape, and future outlook.
2. Macro market trends and strategic opportunities
In recent years, the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has become one of the most closely watched growth tracks in the crypto market. RWA refers to the process of mapping real assets such as bonds, foreign exchange, real estate, certificates of deposit, gold, carbon credits, intellectual property, and even computing power resources onto the blockchain, achieving programmable, transferable, and composable features through smart contracts. According to market research, the potential size of the RWA market could reach several trillion dollars. For example, the total size of the tokenized US treasury market has exceeded $26 trillion, while the total market capitalization of the crypto industry was only about $2.5 trillion at the beginning of 2025. This means that once RWA enters a stage of scaled development, it could push the growth of the crypto market by more than tenfold. Research institutions such as M31 Capital predict that global asset tokenization will reach $30 trillion in the next decade, becoming the largest driving force behind blockchain applications. Meanwhile, the attitudes of financial giants are also accelerating their transformation. BlackRock is promoting tokenized money market funds, JPMorgan is testing treasury token settlement through its Onyx platform, and SWIFT and DTCC are conducting blockchain experiments for cross-border payments and settlements, all indicating that traditional finance is gradually entering the on-chain economy through compliant pilots. Oracles, as the bridge between on-chain and off-chain, are key to whether all tokenized assets can realize their value. Chainlink, as the largest oracle network globally, has seen its data call volume on mainstream chains like Ethereum exceed 80%, and its position in RWA infrastructure is irreplaceable. Therefore, under the macro context of RWA's explosive development, Chainlink has become the underlying asset with the most strategic benefits.
RWA and institutional tokenization have become the strongest main lines at present, requiring three essentials on-chain: 'credible data + cross-chain settlement + compliance execution'. Taking US stocks and ETFs as an example, on-chain products not only need price data but also need to identify trading periods, circuit breakers/suspensions, data freshness, and other 'scenario metadata', otherwise clearing and risk control may be triggered incorrectly. Chainlink officially standardized this set of 'data flow standards oriented towards traditional market contexts' into Data Streams in August 2025, which has already been adopted by front-line protocols like GMX and Kamino, covering high-focus targets like SPY, QQQ, NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT. At the same time, Data Streams are now available on 37 networks, significantly lowering the threshold for developers to build compliance-level derivatives, synthetic assets, and protocols for collateral/lending. The current scale of the RWA market has been statistically reported by industry data platforms to exceed hundreds of billions of dollars, and many top institutions predict it will reach trillions before 2030. In this main line, oracles and compliance interoperability are 'essentials', not 'options'. Additionally, Swift's multiple rounds of experiments and PoCs in 2023-2024 have validated the feasibility of 'connecting banks to multiple chains using existing Swift standards + Chainlink infrastructure'; the DTCC Smart NAV pilot has put key reference data like fund NAV on-chain, clearly designating CCIP as the interoperability layer. These are key paradigms for traditional financial infrastructure to move 'data - rules - settlement' on-chain.
Chainlink's core value lies in its oracle service capabilities. Ethereum and other public chains cannot directly access off-chain data, and the role of oracles is to provide real, reliable, and decentralized data inputs. Chainlink maintains the accuracy of data through thousands of independent nodes, preventing single-point attacks and manipulation. Its technical products cover multiple dimensions, including price feeds, random number generators (VRF), and cross-chain interoperability protocols (CCIP). According to the latest statistics, Chainlink's Total Value Secured (TVS) has exceeded $11.3 billion, occupying about 46% of the oracle market share, far ahead of competitors like Pyth and Band. In the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem, over 90% of lending protocols and derivatives platforms call Chainlink data, with core protocols such as Aave, Synthetix, and Compound relying on Chainlink price feeds. Compared to other high-market-cap tokens like XRP, which have limited applications, LINK's advantages in actual integration and revenue generation are more pronounced. Research shows that XRP's market cap was once over 15 times that of LINK, but XRP's ecosystem integration and institutional adoption lag far behind that of Chainlink. Thus, it is evident that LINK remains significantly undervalued from a valuation perspective, with the potential for a rebound through value reassessment.
3. Core value capture mechanism and expansion of RWA
The most innovative aspect of Chainlink's economic model is its value capture flywheel mechanism. First, protocol users need to use LINK tokens to pay for data call fees; part of these fees goes to node operators, while another part is incorporated into the 'LINK reserve' mechanism. The reserve mechanism will automatically use revenue to buy back LINK and store it in reserves, creating continuous buying pressure in the market and pushing up the token price. Second, as the application of RWA and DeFi increases, the demand for high-frequency data calls and cross-chain communication will continue to grow, leading to exponential growth in protocol revenue. This further enhances the strength of reserve buybacks, driving up the value of LINK. Additionally, LINK's staking mechanism provides holders with stable annualized returns (approximately 4.3%), attracting long-term holding and node participation, thereby reducing market circulation. Ultimately, the adoption, revenue, buybacks, price increases, and ecosystem expansion form a positive cycle, constituting the flywheel effect of value capture. From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2025, LINK's price has risen nearly 50%, fully reflecting the market's expectations for this mechanism.
In terms of economic benefits, Chainlink has begun to demonstrate its commercialization capabilities. According to statistics, its 30-day revenue exceeds $110,000, with a clear upward trend. Although still limited compared to the transaction fee scale of DeFi giants, considering that oracles are B2B infrastructure, its revenue growth has higher stability. At the same time, Chainlink maintains an overwhelming market share, with over 46% market share meaning it has become the industry standard. Compared to competitors like Pyth and Band, Chainlink has a higher number of nodes, deeper partnerships, and better integration with financial institutions. Once RWA scenarios are realized, the data call volume from asset tokenization will far exceed the current DeFi scale, significantly amplifying LINK's revenue potential.
Chainlink primarily operates on a demand-based service fee model (pricing/data service fees, CCIP cross-chain fees, PoR auditing/monitoring fees, Data Streams subscription fees, etc.), with fees routed through the network to nodes and security budgets, and linked to Staking/collateral, alerts/penalties (slashing) within the Economics 2.0 framework, to achieve a positive cycle of 'higher economic security → higher willingness to pay → higher service fees → stronger security budgets'. Staking v0.2 expands the pool limit to 45 million LINK (approximately 40.875 million for the community and the rest for node operators), introducing an unbinding mechanism (28-day cooling + 7-day withdrawal window) to balance security and flexibility; the node collateral portion sets a baseline reward rate that can be stacked with 'delegated rewards'. As the weight of user fee distribution increases in the future, the cash flow attributes of Staking are expected to strengthen. Media and research documents have mentioned the new element 'LINK reserve' (on-chain reserves, a mechanism for periodically purchasing LINK from sources such as enterprise/service fees) multiple times in 2025, aiming to improve exchange floating liquidity and supply elasticity, but it must be emphasized that this mechanism is currently described mainly in media and industry analysis, and the official has not yet released a systematic white paper-style argument. Therefore, we will treat it as a 'scenario optional parameter' rather than a baseline fact in our valuation assumptions.
Additionally, Chainlink has been active in expanding RWA infrastructure. First, collaboration with ICE connects off-chain pricing for foreign exchange and precious metals to the blockchain, providing reliable quotes for tokenized assets. Second, the CCIP cross-chain interoperability protocol enables asset transfer and data exchange between different blockchains, which is a key condition for RWA assets to flow in a multi-chain environment. Third, products like the DeFi Yield Index launched by Chainlink attempt to generate traceable yield indexes by combining multiple DeFi yields, providing financial institutions with integrable on-chain indexing tools. Furthermore, in multiple scenarios such as agricultural assets, intellectual property, computing power assets, and cross-border money market funds, Chainlink is becoming the standard interface for data and value on-chain. As a structural opportunity across multiple industries, the tokenization of RWA must rely on credible data input and inter-chain settlement, thus Chainlink has built a deep moat.
4. Product features and ecosystem cooperation
Chainlink's product family can be divided into four layers - (1) Data: Price Feeds, Proof of Reserve, State Pricing (pricing methods for DEX trading assets), Data Streams (low-latency high-frequency data and scenario metadata); (2) Interoperability: CCIP (cross-chain messaging/value transfer, programmable transfers, CCT standards), in 2025 v1.6 introduced Solana as the first non-EVM mainnet connection, significantly reducing cross-chain execution costs and increasing the speed of expansion to new chains; (3) Computing and automation: Functions, Automation, VRF, etc.; (4) Compliance and governance: risk control, monitoring, and compliance modules aligned with financial market regulations (officially introducing capabilities like ACE recently). Among them, CCIP v1.6, in addition to Solana, claims to support '57+ chains' on the mainnet and designates multiple chains as 'official cross-chain infrastructure (canonical)'; on the Solana side, networks like Zeus Network are first to integrate CCIP and PoR, facilitating cross-chain asset flows of zBTC among Base/Ethereum/Solana/Sonic, expanding BTCFi scenarios. On the data side, in August 2025, ICE Consolidated Feed was introduced as one of the institutional-level data supplies for foreign exchange and precious metals, combined with the low-latency and anti-manipulation mechanisms of Data Streams, which helps operate asset classes favorable for institutional adoption, such as foreign exchange and gold/silver, on-chain with a lower signal-to-noise ratio.
Ecosystem and cooperation network: Chainlink builds a network effect by targeting 'financial institutions - public chains - DeFi protocols - data providers'. On the institutional side: Multiple rounds of experiments by Swift demonstrate the use of existing message standards to connect multiple chains with CCIP; the Swift/UBS/Chainlink pilot in 2024 bridges tokenized assets with traditional payment systems; from 2024 to 2025, the DTCC Smart NAV pilot clearly designates CCIP as the interoperability layer; in August 2025, ICE announced data cooperation with Chainlink, bringing ICE's consolidated quotes for foreign exchange and precious metals into Data Streams, providing real-time data for over 2,000 on-chain applications and institutions; on the asset management and banking sides, ANZ, Fidelity International, Sygnum, and others appear on Chainlink's official 'capital market cooperation' list. On the public chain and protocol side: After CCIP steadily operated on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, Base, Avalanche, BNB, etc., it brought Solana into the fold in 2025, and protocols like Kamino and GMX-Solana have already integrated Data Streams, further facilitating the availability of US stock and ETF data for institutional-level derivatives and collateral lending use cases in non-EVM ecosystems. On the data side: In addition to traditional crypto market aggregation, starting in 2025, it extends to US stocks/ETFs, foreign exchange/precious metals, forming multi-asset coverage.
5. Investment valuation logic and potential space
From a price technical perspective, LINK broke through the important resistance level of $20 by the end of 2024, currently forming a new support structure between $22 and $30. If this range can stabilize, it will provide a foundation for the next round of upward movement. Historically, after ETH broke the $400 mark in 2020, it quickly entered an exponential growth phase, and LINK may replicate a similar structural trend. The flow of funds in whale addresses shows that a large amount of LINK is being transferred from exchanges to cold wallets or staking contracts, indicating that long-term capital is accumulating. Combined with the buying pressure from the reserve mechanism, both technical and financial aspects point to a bullish trend in the medium to long term.
According to third-party data aggregation, Chainlink has long ranked first in the Oracles category, with overall market share estimated to fluctuate between approximately 46%-68%; in the data supply for DeFi in the Ethereum ecosystem, many studies or media estimate its share to be over 80%; this is related to its strategy of 'prioritizing high-value scenarios + stable expansion'. At the same time, competitors (such as Pyth) have seen significant increases in TVS growth through direct connections with exchanges and high-frequency quotes in 2023-2024, but this has not rewritten the comprehensive advantage map of 'high-value multi-scenario + institutional compliance'. In our competitive comparison, we highlight three differentiators: first, institutional-level interoperability and compliance routes—collaborations with Swift, DTCC, ICE, etc. are highly valuable in terms of compliance and standardization; second, the product matrix is shifting from 'pricing' to 'scenario data + risk control metadata', meeting traditional market contexts; third, the coverage of both EVM and non-EVM, with the integration of Solana marking an important milestone. The conclusion is that while short-term share fluctuations are normal, in the complex track of 'multi-asset + multi-chain + compliance', the stickiness of standards and ecosystems is more important.
In terms of valuation logic, Chainlink can be seen as both an infrastructure investment target and a leveraged asset benefiting from the RWA bull market. M31 Capital's research indicates that LINK has a potential upside of 20-30 times in the RWA explosion scenario. This judgment is based on two dimensions: first, the total potential size of the RWA market could reach $30 trillion, while Chainlink has already established itself as the standard layer for data provision; second, LINK's current market cap remains undervalued, with a significant mismatch compared to projects like XRP. From a risk-reward perspective, LINK has both certainty in revenue support and potential for valuation reassessment, making it suitable for long-term investors to make low-cost allocations.
The total supply limit of LINK is 1 billion tokens. The common allocation at the time of issuance is said to be: 35% public sale, 35% node incentives/ecosystem rewards, and 30% company/treasury (SmartContract.com/Chainlink Labs). This allocation structure has been reiterated by multiple studies/popular science from Glassnode, Crypto.com University, Sygnum, etc. Staking v0.2 binds network security with value capture; after user fees are introduced, LINK's revenue path gradually shifts from 'pure growth expectations' to a combination of 'service fee cash flow + network security budget returns'. We suggest distinguishing three layers of demand in valuations: first, 'usage demand' (data/service/cross-chain fees paid after protocol integration); second, 'security demand' (node collateral and community staking); third, 'liquidity/strategic demand' (market making and governance, potential 'reserve' purchases, etc.). On the supply side, the release rhythm and usage of 'node incentives/ecosystem rewards' in the coming years will directly affect the supply-demand balance in the secondary market.
Industry media and third-party tracking have recorded Chainlink's TVS at several billion dollars multiple times in 2025, maintaining a leading position in terms of the number of protocols and multi-chain coverage; the official homepage also claims 'cumulative support for on-chain transaction volumes in the tens of trillions of dollars'. On the fee side, aggregation platforms show that Chainlink's recent fees/income are still in the 'climbing phase', but we observe that the penetration of high-quality scenarios (such as GMX/Kamino's adoption of Data Streams and the activation of new categories such as US stocks/ETFs/foreign exchange/precious metals) is more likely to bring a 'qualitative turning point'. The staking pool filled quickly after the launch of v0.2, showing the community's and nodes' willingness to pay for network security budgets. We construct forward-looking indicators using 'unit TVS fee rates weighted by high-quality scenario coverage' rather than simply linearly extrapolating the entire network's rough TVS.
We break down the value of LINK into three parts - (A) 'platform option value': corresponding to the RWA/institutional full-scale outbreak, with data and interoperability serving as a 'tax-like' infrastructure premium; (B) 'operating cash flow': estimated based on the number of active contracts across multiple product lines such as data services/cross-chain services/reserve proofs/automation * single contract ARPU, considering chain expansion and non-EVM penetration elasticity; (C) 'security budget and collateral returns': gradually becoming explicit as Staking/delegated scale and user fee sharing increase. We construct three scenario curves: the conservative scenario assumes that only the crypto-native derivatives and stablecoin ecosystem expand, with LINK steadily growing its share in 'high-quality scenarios'; the neutral scenario introduces mid-to-high frequency applications driven by Data Streams in US stocks/ETFs/foreign exchange/precious metals, with ARPU significantly increasing; the optimistic scenario introduces institutional-level cross-border settlements and multi-market tokenization (including fund NAV distribution, custody, and settlement automation), with the volume of CCIP messages/value transfers increasing, leading to user fees and revenue sharing enhancements. We suggest tracking the following indicators: (1) active channels and number of protocols for Data Streams; (2) monthly cross-chain messages and value transfer scale for CCIP; (3) asset scale under PoR monitoring; (4) net inflow and node earnings from Staking; (5) subscription and calling frequency for ICE/US stock ETF data; (6) milestones for the implementation of 'standard institutions' like Swift/DTCC.
6. Potential risks and strategic recommendations
Despite Chainlink's current market leadership, potential risks must be considered. First, changes in the competitive landscape. High-frequency quotes and direct exchange connections may have cost-performance advantages in specific tracks and could erode market share in certain scenarios. Second, the pace of cost and value capture may fall short of expectations. If the commercialization curve of Data Streams/CCIP is more gradual, the realization of LINK's 'cash flow characteristics' will be delayed. Third, regulatory uncertainties. Regulations and licensing requirements for cross-border data, foreign exchange, and securitized products may affect the pace of product launches. Fourth, technical and operational risks. Low-latency data and cross-chain messaging require long-term stability in 'defensive depth' and node governance. Fifth, new mechanisms mentioned in the media such as 'LINK reserve', if not systematically implemented by the official system, should be treated with caution regarding their marginal impact on supply and demand in the secondary market and should not be heavily weighted in baseline valuations.
From an investor's perspective, LINK is suitable for a medium-to-long-term holding strategy and can reduce volatility risks through phased accumulation and systematic investment. For investors looking to participate in staking, the annualized return of 4.3% provides additional returns while helping to reduce circulation. For project teams, continuous deepening of cooperation with financial institutions and enterprises is essential to further standardize the data sources and settlement mechanisms of RWA, thus expanding the application scope. For ecosystem developers, Chainlink provides stable data and cross-chain service interfaces, which can be built upon to create more DeFi, cross-chain applications, and RWA products in the future.
We position LINK (Chainlink) as a core asset of 'on-chain finance universal infrastructure + data/interoperability hub', driven by three long-term main lines: first, data and compliance-oriented oracles will span the entire process from crypto-native to traditional asset tokenization. Chainlink has become the de facto standard (third-party data such as DeFiLlama has shown it dominates the Oracles ranking; multiple statistics from media and research institutions estimate its market share in the entire oracle market at about 46%-68%, and its share of data supply in Ethereum DeFi is around 80%+); second, the cross-chain interoperability layer CCIP continues to expand from public chains to institutional-level applications, with the network effect and standardization path becoming increasingly clear; third, the family of data products (price oracles, Proof of Reserve, Data Streams, State Pricing, etc.) and institutional data supply (ICE, etc.) together form a matrix of 'high-frequency low-latency + compliance modularization' products, pushing the expansion from crypto-native assets to a broader range of traditional asset data such as US stock ETFs, foreign exchange, precious metals, and fund NAVs. In terms of on-chain value capture, Chainlink's economic model revolves around the cycle of 'fees - services - collateral - nodes - ecosystem return' (Economics 2.0 and Staking v0.2), supplemented by supply-side arrangements such as the BUILD plan and the 'LINK reserve' mentioned in media reports, aiming to couple network usage fees with security budgets and ecosystem growth, gradually enhancing LINK's utility and potential cash flow attributes. Comprehensive institutional cooperation (Swift, DTCC, ICE), multi-chain coverage, explosive demand for RWA and cross-chain capabilities, and the inclusion of non-EVM ecosystems like Solana lead us to judge that LINK retains asset characteristics with both β and α overlays in the next cycle.
7. Conclusion
In summary, Chainlink, as a leading project in oracles and cross-chain infrastructure, possesses unique strategic value in the wave of RWA tokenization. Its value capture flywheel mechanism, LINK reserve buyback model, and staking incentive mechanism together constitute a robust economic model. As the RWA market expands, Chainlink's applications will cover more financial scenarios, with both revenue and token value continuing to grow. From a valuation perspective, LINK remains undervalued relative to other high-market-cap tokens lacking application support, with significant room for rebound and reassessment in the future. Despite risks such as technical, competitive, and regulatory issues, from a long-term perspective, Chainlink is still expected to become the invisible winner of the on-chain economy, promoting deep integration between the crypto industry and traditional finance.