1. Introduction
In mid-August, ETH strongly broke through $4,700, reaching a four-year high, while SOL oscillated mostly between $180–200 during the same period, far behind BTC and ETH's price performance. Reflecting on the Meme surge triggered by Solana on platforms like Pump.fun in 2024, it was once seen as ETH's terminator, and on January 19, 2025, SOL refreshed its historical high near $293, followed by a retracement, consolidation, and fluctuating emotions, forming a divergence with ETH's 'strengthening trend'. Behind the surface, there are systemic differences in capital entry, value anchoring, and network narratives. So what are the underlying reasons? Can the Solana ecosystem create brilliance again, and will the SOL token take off once more?
This article will analyze the on-chain data and ecological performance panorama of Solana, dissect the core reasons for SOL's phase-wise underperformance against ETH, and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of SOL's potential resurgence. Based on this, it will forecast Solana's possible trends in Q3–Q4 of 2025, providing a systematic reference for readers.
2. Comprehensive analysis of Solana's ecological performance in 2025
Solana's growth path is distinctly different from Ethereum: it captures value not through 'high gas fees + deflation' but through single-chain high throughput + ultra-low fees to accommodate massive long-tail and high-frequency trading.
1. Core on-chain indicators
Since the beginning of this year, the Solana ecosystem has shown a trend of 'oscillating upward after a high-level retreat'. TVL and stablecoin stock show a stepwise increase, with current TVL around $10.42 billion and stablecoin market cap approximately $11.62 billion, indicating that the on-chain 'underlying dollar liquidity pool' has returned to and stabilized in the billion-dollar range; the number of on-chain transactions remains high, maintaining an active 'high-frequency/tail-end' trading status; $SOL's total market cap saw a significant drop in Q1 but has shown a wave-like upward rhythm since Q2; from a structural change perspective, the resurgence of Meme enthusiasm has marginally improved DEX/chain fees, but has not yet returned to the year's peak.
Source: https://defillama.com/chain/solana
2. Meme coin sector
As the leading network for Meme coins, Solana has produced star Meme coins like BONK, WIF, POPCAT, MOODENG, PNUT, TRUMP, PENGU, FARTCOIN, USELESS, etc. The common characteristics of Solana Meme are 'high volatility + strong rotation + strong event-driven', with the total market capitalization of Solana Meme sector currently around $11.7 billion. The top 5 Meme coins by popularity since the beginning of the year are as follows:
PENGU: A 'brand coin' closely tied to popular NFT IP, with physical toy sales exceeding $10 million, covering over 3,100 stores. Canary Capital has submitted a PENGU ETF application to the SEC, significantly strengthening throughout the year, ranking among the top in Solana Meme market capitalization.
BONK: Solana's dog-themed 'veteran' and community traffic entry point, experiencing noticeable growth with the emergence of LetsBonk.fun, but currently showing a significant retreat.
TRUMP: A Trump Meme, belonging to the sentiment coins driven by political topics, has shown overall volatility since its launch in January, with a warming trend triggered by Trump's crypto dinner in May, currently still in a retracement state, sensitive to event catalysts.
FARTCOIN: Its popularity stems from humorous themes and viral dissemination: users submit fart jokes or memes to earn coins, with each transaction producing a digital fart sound, combined with AI narratives (created by AI Truth Terminal), branded as an AI-meme hybrid, easily triggering FOMO.
USELESS: USELESS emphasizes 'uselessness' as a selling point, satirizing the hollow promises of other coins, becoming the most honest meme coin, with higher prices leading to greater uselessness and easier speculation attraction.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/solana-meme-coins
3. Launchpad sector
The Launchpad competition on Solana has evolved from 'who is cheaper/faster to list' to a contest of 'creator economy, token buybacks, community governance'.
Pump.fun: Igniting the entire chain of Memes with a 1% transaction fee and 'foolproof issuance'. Revenue in mid-August 2025 reached approximately $13.48 million in a single week, returning to a peak; cumulative revenue has exceeded $800 million; simultaneously, the dramatic recovery of 'market share reversed from 5% to ~90% in two weeks' has attracted widespread attention.
LetsBonk.fun: Quickly rising after its launch in April 2025, it once captured over 78% of issuance share in July, followed by a drop in share. Its 'community mobilization + low-threshold issuance' path remains one of the core competitors of Pump.fun.
Bags: Focused on 'creator profit sharing/royalty' routes, emphasizing creator revenue and continuous distribution, entering niche tracks tied to opinion leaders/creators, with transaction volume exceeding $1 billion in the past 30 days.
Moonshot: A fiat entry-level app that supports Apple Pay direct top-ups and fiat deposits. Once topped the 'Finance Free Apps' chart in the US App Store, greatly lowering the entry barrier for newcomers.
Believe: A social media entry point where 'replying posts earns coins', which sparked controversy from June onwards due to the suspension of certain on-chain revenue sharing/moving towards offline payments, and adjusted automatic listing to 'manual review'.
Source: https://dune.com/adam_tehc/memecoin-wars
4. DeFi sector
Solana's DeFi is more like 'high-frequency/tail-end trading infrastructure'. Raydium/Orca handles DEX trading and liquidity, Jupiter/Drift handles derivatives trading, routing fragmented liquidity, while Kamino enhances capital efficiency, and Jito/Marinade provides 'stable interest + liquidity' as underlying assets.
Raydium (AMM + ecosystem launch pool): A long-established DEX/AMM on Solana, handling most of the long-tail spot liquidity and launch pool functionality; fees and income consistently rank among the top in the industry, displaying a positive feedback loop of 'platform cash flow—token value'.
Jupiter (aggregator + trading interface): Solana's default router, integrating liquidity from multiple DEXs, including Raydium; the JPL pool aggregates a large amount of liquidity and has announced the upcoming launch of a lending sector.
Kamino (unified liquidity/lending/market making position management): Known for its 'active market making treasury + lending', TVL consistently ranks among the top on Solana, becoming a 'distribution center' for LPs and funds.
Jito (LST + MEV infrastructure): Makes MEV explicit through the Jito client/block engine/'Bundles', and allocates part of the MEV to stakers via jitoSOL. Jito tips now account for a significant proportion of the on-chain 'real economic value (REV)'.
3. Analysis of the reasons for SOL underperforming ETH
ETH, with the approval of the spot ETF, has established a complete closed loop from 'compliant capital → secondary liquidity → market making/derivatives', further enhanced by larger corporate treasury scales and the 'on-chain financial hub' narrative, forming stronger capital absorption and valuation anchors; Solana focuses on a trading-centric ecosystem of 'high frequency/tail-end applications', where price elasticity relies more on thematic prosperity (Meme/Launchpad, etc.), and is more prone to 'de-anchoring' during risk aversion or thematic rotations.
1. ETF funding increment gap
SOL: The US stock market has a Solana ETF with staking returns (SSK), but it is complex and not a standard SEC registered spot ETF, accumulating only about $150 million in net inflow since its launch, far less than the fundraising capacity of ETH ETFs. Short-term market focus is on the SOL spot ETF applications from VanEck and Grayscale; if approved around October, it may open a compliant model and passive capital channel similar to ETH.
ETH: The scale of spot ETFs has surpassed $22 billion, becoming the main entry point for institutional funds. Leading institutions (such as BlackRock) are pushing for applications for 'stakable ETH ETFs', which, if realized, will combine 'staking returns' and 'compliant channels', further solidifying long-term allocation.
2. Differences in corporate holding scales
SOL: Known as the 'SOL MicroStrategy', Upexi currently has a NAV of about $365 million, holding 1.8 million SOL, and has invited Arthur Hayes to join the advisory board to strengthen strategy and volume; other listed companies (such as DFDV, BTCM) are also slowly increasing their holdings, but overall scale still has a significant gap compared to ETH's treasury strategy.
ETH: Self-proclaimed as 'ETH MicroStrategy', BitMine Immersion (BMNR) plans to increase its fundraising scale to $20 billion, currently with a NAV of about $5.3 billion, second only to Bitcoin's MicroStrategy; simultaneously, endorsements from global influencers like Tom Lee significantly enhance market narratives and capital attraction.
3. Differences in network narrative positioning
Solana: Leans more towards 'single-chain high throughput + ultra-low fees' for consumer-grade applications and speculative hotspots (Meme, Launchpad). Although it has made several attempts to engage with RWA this year, most have ended without success; in August, CMBI × DigiFT issued dollar money market fund tokens (CMBMINT) on Solana, a rare positive case of compliant RWA, with SOL reaching over $200 on that day, seen by the market as the starting point for a potential narrative switch.
Ethereum: Ethereum is building a compliant and sustainable on-chain financial infrastructure and clearing layer position, receiving 'structural subscriptions' from institutions. About half of the stablecoin issuance and approximately 30% of Gas occurs on Ethereum; simultaneously, Robinhood launched stock tokens on Ethereum L2, and Coinbase is fully developing Base.
4. Different mechanisms for value capture
Solana: Achieves ultra-high interaction density through low fees + high throughput, with value capture relying more on total trading volume and application layer fees/MEV, etc.; when Meme/long-tail activities recede, chain fees and application fees cool down simultaneously, weakening the valuation anchor.
Ethereum: EIP-1559 directly burns base fees, showing net deflation/low inflation during busy periods, further augmented by staking returns, forming a valuation anchor of 'supply-side contraction + cash flow'.
5. Historical risk memory and 'credibility discount'
Solana: The approximately 5-hour downtime on February 6, 2024, and subsequent decline in individual consensus nodes, although restored, remains a risk factor in institutional pricing tables.
Ethereum: 'No downtime' and a broader developer/compliance ecosystem bring a lower credibility discount—when macro volatility rises, this discount will be amplified by the market.
4. Can SOL take off again: Analysis of advantages/disadvantages
SOL possesses the fundamental base of 'high activity + low fee rate + MEV sharing + application layer cash flow', combined with catalysts such as spot ETFs and RWA compliance, has a complete opportunity to initiate another trend; however, in the absence of ETF increments, treasury scale, and narratives still weaker than ETH, and the historical stability shadows not fully digested, prices remain highly 'event-driven'.
1. Advantages and bullish logic of SOL
Single-chain throughput + low fee rate = natural soil for activity and long-tail assets
Solana handles tens of millions of interactions per day on a single chain, with trading and market making being naturally active and fees extremely low, conducive to continuous trial and error and diffusion of Meme, long-tail assets, and high-frequency DeFi.Compliance RWA is being sampled
CMBI × DigiFT tokenizes dollar money market funds and synchronously deploys them on multi-chains such as Solana/Ethereum, claiming to be the first publicly compliant MMF on Solana, bringing 'cash-like assets that can be explained by institutions' and entry points for fiat/stablecoins. This represents a potential 'long-term capital narrative'.Inflation curve is predictable
Solana's established inflation model: starting at 8%, decreasing by 15% every 'year' (~180 epochs), and a long-term rate of 1.5%. The actual annualized rate in 2025 is expected to be around 4.3%–4.6%, with discussions on community-driven proposals for accelerated de-inflation. Predictable inflation decline is beneficial for medium- to long-term valuation anchors.Approval of spot ETF = 'opening of the funding floodgate'
Many institutions, including VanEck, have submitted or updated S-1 filings for SOL spot ETFs to the SEC; once approved, it will replicate the path of 'compliant capital → passive allocation → market making/derivatives' as seen with ETH, attracting more institutional treasury participation.
2. SOL's disadvantages and bearish logic
The true increment of the ETF is still on the way
The scale of ETH's spot ETF > $22B, has formed a closed loop for institutional funds; while SOL is still in the application/communication phase, the current 'staking-enabled' products in the US are not standard SEC spot ETFs, far weaker in fundraising capacity. Realized vs. still expected, directly reflected in relative returns.The gap between treasury strategy scale and 'spokesperson'
The scale of 'treasury companies' in the ETH camp (such as BMNR) is significantly larger than that in the SOL camp (such as Upexi), supported by first-line opinion leaders like Tom Lee; while SOL's treasury is still in the 'catch-up phase'. This means who has more bullets in times of turmoil.Network narrative of 'financial hub vs. consumption/speculation chain'
ETH firmly occupies the narrative high ground of stable coins/clearing/compliant finance; Solana relies more on Meme/Launchpad/tail-end to drive activity and fees, with thematic rotations directly impacting on-chain fees and cash flows, making price anchors more 'volatile'.Fee competition from ETH itself
The reduction in Ethereum mainnet fees, along with competition from BSC, Base, Sui, and other networks, makes 'low fees' no longer Solana's unique selling point, resulting in a diversion effect for new developers and funds.
5. Q3–Q4 SOL trend outlook and summary
The essence of Solana remains 'high activity, low fees, application monetization' as a consumer-grade high-frequency chain. Whether it can 'take off again' in Q3–Q4 depends largely on whether ETFs can bring compliant increments, whether RWA can successfully navigate large-scale closed loops, and whether network stability continues to improve.
Baseline scenario: Q3 enters a 'trading recovery + narrative waiting' oscillating upward phase. On-chain activity and DEX/perpetual transactions remain high, with Meme showing a cyclical pattern of impulse activity—retraction—reactivation. In terms of price, SOL is largely pulled back and forth between 'valuation uplift from fundamentals' and 'risk premium contraction from event expectations', with a tendency for oscillation upward.
Bullish scenario: If spot ETFs are approved or enter a clear effective window around Q4, coupled with the regularization of RWA issuance (not just individual MMFs, but more government bonds/notes/fund products), then the three elements of SOL's 'fund floodgate, sustainable cash flow, and network resilience' will be simultaneously strengthened, and prices are expected to embark on a trend upward, potentially breaking previous highs.
Bearish scenario: If ETFs are delayed or rejected again, Meme/Launchpad shows significant retreat, or other main chains emerge with innovative features or hot topics, it may trigger loosening of valuation anchors and collapse of trading beta; if coupled with macro tightening or significant fee reductions on Ethereum mainnet/L2 diverting funds, SOL will enter a 'high volatility downward—weak rebound' structure.
Conclusion
Solana experienced a rollercoaster of heated fluctuations in 2025. From the glorious heights during the Meme frenzy at the beginning of the year to relative obscurity facing ETH's aggressive pressure mid-year, market positioning for Solana wavered multiple times. However, it is certain that the unique value of Solana's high-performance public chain remains prominent, and its ecosystem has not stagnated due to a momentary cooling. In the long run, whether Solana can lead again depends on its ability to convert high-speed network advantages into sustainable user value: retaining users after the speculative tide recedes, expanding broader application boundaries; as well as gaining mainstream capital trust and sharing the pie in the compliance process. Fortunately, we have already seen signs of this: whether in institutional layouts, technological upgrades, or ecological narrative transitions, Solana is accumulating strength. Perhaps the current retracement is more like a buildup, waiting for the opportunity to take off again.
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