95% of Bitcoin has been mined, with less than 1.1 million BTC left for the trillion-dollar race. But the real explosion may not come from the last coin but from what happens right after that.

The Global Machine Never Sleeps

A massive factory, stretching from the cool data centers in Sweden, through solar energy farms in Texas, to hydroelectric facilities in Paraguay and Ethiopia, does not produce cars or phones but produces something intangible: trust. The factory operates continuously without a second of rest. This is the Bitcoin mining network.

Mining Bitcoin is like playing a giant guessing game on a computer,” explains Frank Holmes, CEO of Hive Digital Technologies. “You use super-powerful machines to solve extremely difficult problems. Whoever solves it first receives the reward of brand new bitcoins, which we call Virgin Bitcoins.

However, this 'guessing game' also carries a more important mission; that is to keep the entire system running. Every time a miner solves a problem, they not only receive Bitcoin, but also gain the right to verify the transactions that have just occurred, record them into a new data block, and attach that block to the immutable public ledger known as the blockchain.

This is the 'heart' of Bitcoin, ensuring that when I send Bitcoin to you, that transaction is real, irreversible, and fraud-proof. And most importantly, no central organization has the authority to control this process. 'There is no Visa-like center that can lock down the system,' Holmes emphasizes. The Bitcoin network is operated by over 21,000 independent nodes worldwide. If a part of the network is attacked or goes offline, thousands of other nodes remain operational, ensuring safety and continuity for the entire system.

This decentralization is the real revolution. It recalls Napster in the 2000s - a platform that demonstrated the power of peer-to-peer networks and shook the music industry. Bitcoin is doing the same with finance, creating a system beyond the control of major banks and governments.

However, the game today is very different from its early days. You can no longer just use a laptop to 'guess numbers.' The competition has become so fierce that miners are forced to use specialized machines called ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits) - chips designed solely for mining Bitcoin with maximum efficiency and minimum energy consumption.

Every ten minutes is a ball contest,” Holmes likens. “To win the ball (bitcoin), you need the strongest ASIC chip and the cheapest power.” The guessing game has now become a multi-billion dollar industry - a global technological arms race, where performance and energy costs determine success or failure.

And all these enormous efforts are aimed at a single finish line, which has been set from the beginning: the magic number 21 million.

The Race Towards Absolute Scarcity

Satoshi Nakamoto - the mysterious founder of Bitcoin - embedded a 'golden rule' into the system: there will only ever be a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins, no more, no less. This is a hard limit, a mathematical commitment to absolute scarcity.

Now, the race to that 21 million figure is nearing its conclusion. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, as of July this year, more than 94.75% of Bitcoin, equivalent to about 19.9 million BTC, has been mined. After 16 years, the 'treasure' has almost been unearthed, leaving only about 1.1 million BTC waiting in the 'mine'.

So why have we mined 95% in just over a decade, but the remaining part takes over a century? The secret lies in the 'halving' mechanism - cutting the reward in half. Every 210,000 new blocks, or roughly every four years, the reward for miners is halved. In 2009, each block yielded 50 BTC; by 2012 it dropped to 25 BTC, then 12.5 BTC in 2016. In 2020, it was down to 6.25 BTC, and from 2024 it will be 3.125 BTC. If on track, by 2028, each block will yield about 1.5625 BTC.

This mechanism turns Bitcoin into an asset that is deflationary in the true sense, like a gold mine where every four years, mining becomes twice as difficult. This is also the factor that has created historic price cycles and helped Bitcoin be likened to 'digital gold.' While the supply of physical gold still increases by about 1.7% each year, the 'inflation' rate of Bitcoin decreases transparently and predictably.

Bitcoin's release schedule is even more special. By the end of 2020, over 87% of the supply had emerged; by 2035, it is expected to reach 99%. However, the final 1% - the tiny satoshis - will be mined sporadically until 2140. And the reality is even harsher: Chainalysis estimates that about 20% of mined Bitcoin may have disappeared forever due to lost access keys, forgotten passwords, or deceased owners. This means the actual circulating supply may only be around 17-18 million BTC.

In fact, the final number may not even hit exactly 21 million due to rounding in the source code, resulting in a maximum supply that could be slightly lower.

We are living in the final stages of the Bitcoin 'mining' era. And the biggest trillion-dollar question now is: When no new Bitcoin is created, what will keep this 'global machine' running?

That is the biggest gamble of Bitcoin.

Life After 2140: The Biggest Gamble of Bitcoin

In 2140, the last block solved, the new Bitcoin reward ends. From that moment on, the total supply of Bitcoin will remain unchanged forever. But what will keep miners spending billions of dollars on electricity and hardware to secure the network?

Satoshi's answer lies in another source of income: transaction fees.

Every time you send a Bitcoin transaction, you can include a small fee to encourage miners to prioritize processing it. Currently, this fee represents only a small fraction of the block reward. But in the future, it is designed to become the sole and critical source of income for miners.

This is a big gamble based on the assumption that by 2140, the Bitcoin network is large enough and valuable enough for users to be willing to pay fees to use it. The future could go in two main directions or a mix of both:

Bitcoin becomes 'Gold 2.0': The Ultimate Store of Value

In this scenario, Bitcoin is not something you use to buy a cup of coffee. The original Bitcoin blockchain will become a layer of payment and the ultimate store of value, reserved for large, high-value transactions, such as transactions between central banks, multinational corporations, or the transfer of assets worth millions of dollars.

With such massive transactions, paying a fee of a few hundred, even thousands of dollars to ensure safety, security, and irreversibility is entirely acceptable. In summary, these fees will be large enough to create a sustainable 'security budget' that encourages miners to continue their work.

The rise of 'transaction highways' - Layer 2

To address the daily transaction issue, 'Layer 2' solutions like the Lightning Network have emerged. Imagine the Bitcoin blockchain as a slow and costly interbank transfer system, but extremely secure. The Lightning Network is like your credit card or digital wallet - fast, cheap, and efficient for small transactions.

These solutions allow millions of small transactions to occur 'off' the main chain instantly at almost no cost. They only use the main blockchain for the final settlement when needed. This model allows Bitcoin to scale to serve billions of users without congesting the main network. Transaction fees on the original blockchain remain high, but it does not affect ordinary users in their daily activities.

The journey of Bitcoin is shifting from a sprint to a marathon. The early stages with generous block rewards are like a sprint to distribute Bitcoin globally and kickstart the network. But now, and extending until 2140, it will be a long run, where the release speed slows down, and the true value of the network is put to the test.

After 2140, the race will become an eternal marathon. Network security will no longer be maintained by 'printing' new coins but will rely entirely on the economic value and utility it provides to users.

Satoshi Nakamoto's gamble lies in whether the economic model he designed is sophisticated and sustainable enough to operate autonomously over the centuries. The answer will determine whether Bitcoin becomes a global financial platform, or just a fleeting but memorable chapter in the history of technology.

The greatest race of the digital age still has a long way to go.