Having been declared dead 477 times, from Nobel economists to bank CEOs, bitcoin has still revived and reached a new peak of $124,000. At the same time, investors are debating whether the 4-year cycle still holds value in the ETF era.

The Unmasking of the 'King' Who Declared Bitcoin Dead

If there were an award for persistently predicting the collapse of bitcoin, Warren Buffett might not be the one to receive the gold cup. Although the Omaha prophet is famous for saying 'bitcoin is rat poison squared' and has criticized it 8 times, he still has to tip his hat to another figure.

An interesting website called 'Bitcoin is dead' was created not to attack, but to store a 'graveyard' honoring all the 'obituaries' for the world's largest cryptocurrency. At the top of this 'Hall of Fame' is none other than Peter Schiff - an economist, a gold enthusiast, and extremely skeptical about bitcoin. With 18 declarations of bitcoin being 'dead', he has officially become the 'king' of this special club.

The list of pessimists is not lacking in notable names, from Nobel-winning economists like Paul Krugman, Eric Maskin, to the powerful CEO of JPMorgan Chase - Jamie Dimon. They, along with many reputable financial journalists and scholars, have contributed to a symphony of pessimism about the future of bitcoin.

However, the reality is a completely different story. Despite the doomsday prophecies, on August 14, bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $124,457. Even with a slight correction afterwards, the fact that an asset continuously 'dies' yet achieves a market capitalization on par with tech giants like Alphabet or Amazon is a paradox worth pondering.

This paradox raises a larger question: If the world's top financial minds continuously make mistakes, then what is truly driving bitcoin? The answer for the past decade lies in an almost sacred concept: the 4-year cycle.

The Life-and-Death Struggle of the 4-Year Cycle

For those who believe in bitcoin, the 4-year cycle tied to the 'halving' event (reducing the reward for miners by half) is almost an absolute guiding principle. Simply put, every 4 years, the supply of new bitcoin entering the market will be halved, creating a supply shock, and history has shown that this is always followed by a massive price surge.

The reputable on-chain analysis company Glassnode, in a recent report, asserted that the current price action of bitcoin still 'reflects patterns from the past.' They believe that despite the market being volatile, the familiar rhythm of the cycle has yet to miss a beat.

According to this model, Glassnode and many other analysts like Rekt Capital predict that the peak of this bull cycle could fall around October this year, approximately 550 days after the halving event in April 2024.

However, there are signs that the party may be 'cooling off.' Glassnode points out that profit-taking activity from long-term investors is at a high level, similar to the euphoric stages at the end of previous cycles. More importantly, the capital inflow to the market is 'showing signs of fatigue,' as evidenced by spot bitcoin ETFs witnessing nearly $1 billion in net outflows in just a few trading sessions.

This contradiction has sparked the largest debate in the cryptocurrency community today: Is this time different? Has the 4-year cycle really died?

The New Era: ETFs on the Rise, Old Cycles Retreat?

The 'dissenters' argue that the 4-year cycle is outdated, and more and more significant voices are emerging. They believe that the involvement of traditional financial institutions, especially through ETF funds, has changed the game forever.

The tidal wave from ETFs: Spot bitcoin ETFs are likened to a solid bridge connecting the volatile cryptocurrency market with the massive ocean of traditional finance.

For the first time, institutional investors, pension funds, and ordinary people can access bitcoin easily, safely, and legally through their brokerage accounts. This massive influx of capital has the potential to overshadow the impact of the halving event.

Corporate bitcoin 'treasuries': Author Jason Williams points out that the 100 companies with the largest bitcoin reserves are holding nearly 1 million BTC. This figure, worth over $112 billion, shows that bitcoin is no longer a purely speculative asset for retail investors. It has become a strategic reserve asset for many corporations, creating a stable and long-term buying force, which is unprecedented in previous cycles.

The impact of macroeconomics: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, bluntly states that 'the bitcoin cycle is dead.'

He believes that as Bitcoin becomes more deeply integrated into the global financial system, it will be influenced more by macro factors such as the interest rate cycle of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) rather than solely relying on the inherent halving mechanism. The impact of halving will gradually diminish, while the 'heartbeat' of the global economy will become the determining factor.

So, who should we believe? The defenders of the traditional cycle or those who believe in a new era?

The 4-year cycle may not be 'dead,' but it is evolving. The core principles of supply and demand created by halving are still there, but they are no longer the sole driving force. The involvement of massive institutional capital through ETFs and public companies is like pouring a tremendous amount of water into a lake. The water level will certainly rise, but the waves will no longer be as violent and sudden as before.

For investors, this means that the old rules may no longer apply mechanically. Instead of just counting the days after halving, we now have to also monitor the inflows and outflows of ETF funds, the financial reports of companies holding bitcoin, and most importantly, the interest rate decisions of major central banks.

Bitcoin may have proven itself immortal against 477 prophecies of collapse, but the 'obituaries' for bitcoin are likely to never end. And now, it faces a greater challenge: maturation. In the financial world, maturity means giving up the naive rules to enter a much more complex and unpredictable playing field.

The death of the 4-year cycle, if it truly happens, will not be an end, but the beginning of a new chapter in the history of bitcoin.