#BOB

1. Peer comparison (valuation & growth)

BOB: P/E ~6.5, P/B ~0.8–0.85, ROE ~14%.

SBI (State Bank of India): P/E ~9–10, P/B ~1.2, ROE ~16%.

PNB (Punjab National Bank): P/E ~8–9, P/B ~1.0, ROE ~12%.

➡️ Takeaway: BOB trades cheaper than SBI, but slightly above PNB on ROE. Good value play among PSU banks.

2. Dividend play

Dividend yield ~3.4%, with a consistent payout record.

This makes BOB appealing not only for price appreciation (~12–15% upside expected) but also for income investors who want regular dividends.

3. Macro sensitivity

Being a PSU bank, BOB is highly linked to RBI interest rate policy, government lending schemes, and public borrowing trends.

Rate cuts could compress margins (bad), but credit growth in MSME/retail tends to pick up strongly (good).

4. Seasonality & price behavior

Historical August returns: slightly negative on average (–2.5%).

Stronger months: usually post-September (driven by festive demand + credit growth).

So traders might use August dips as entry points for medium-term plays.

5. Scenario outlook

Bull case (₹280–₹300): Loan growth sustains at 13%+, NII stabilizes, provisioning stays low.

Base case (₹265–₹275): Consensus target; moderate earnings, decent asset quality, limited surprises.

Bear case (₹220–₹230): NII continues to decline, asset quality worsens, macro pressures weigh.