Next Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: Don't Get Too Crazy About Rate Cuts, Don't Panic About PCE

In the new week, the macro market will face a series of significant events and data, and investors need to remain calm between rate cut expectations and inflation pressures.

🔑 Key Focus This Week

Tuesday 03:15: 2026 FOMC voting member, Dallas Fed President Logan attends the 100th anniversary conference of the Bank of Mexico and participates in discussions.

Tuesday 07:15: FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams delivers a keynote speech.

Tuesday 22:00: U.S. August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Thursday 00:45: 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.

Thursday 20:30: U.S. revised annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP for Q2.

Friday 06:00: Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on monetary policy.

Friday 20:30: U.S. July Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending Month-on-Month.

💡 Market Interpretation

Dollar Index Outlook:

With labor market data becoming the main reference for the Federal Reserve, the market is almost certain that a rate cut will occur in September. As a result, the dollar index continues to face pressure, and unless future employment reports show unexpected improvement, the rebound space is limited.

Rate Cut Expectations and Policy Path:

Investors may consider the recent rate cuts as a done deal, but the subsequent pace of easing remains highly uncertain. The Federal Reserve needs to balance employment pressures while being wary of recurring inflation.

Significance of Core PCE Signals:

This Friday's Core PCE data will be a barometer for inflation expectations. If prices remain sticky, the Fed's easing path may be more cautious than the market imagines, and optimistic expectations for risk assets will also be tested.

📊 Investor Insights

"A rate cut is just around the corner, but that doesn't mean a liquidity spring is coming immediately."

The dollar still faces downward pressure, but this reflects market sentiment more than the end of a long-term trend. When speculating on policy paths, investors should pay attention to the subtle balance between employment and inflation, as well as the volatility risks brought by the market's excessive trading of a single expectation. #比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊 #亚洲家族办公室加密资产配置 #以太坊生态山寨币普涨