The cryptocurrency market is entering a heated debate about the future of Bitcoin: Will the world's largest digital currency continue to adhere to the '4-year cycle' associated with halving events, or has it entered a new era?

History and the question of the 4-year cycle

In the past, Bitcoin often experienced strong growth after each halving, reaching peak prices the following year, then dropping 70–80% the next year. However, this pattern may be breaking. Last year, Bitcoin did something unprecedented: it reached a new peak before the halving occurred, driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024.

ETF – A game-changing turning point

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes that investors through ETFs bring more stability to the market. 'More stable investors lead to more stable prices,' he said, emphasizing that capital flows from ETFs have opened the door for millions of USD in institutional capital to flow into Bitcoin – these investors often have long-term strategies and are less affected by short-term volatility.

The reality proves the influence of ETFs: just a few months after launch, Bitcoin set a new record and continued to rise sharply thanks to the victory of US President Donald Trump – who has a crypto-friendly stance. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $115,492, up more than 22% since the beginning of the year, and recently set a peak of $124,128 on August 14.

The maturity of the market

Not only the flow of ETF capital, but the participation of major institutions like Harvard University or Goldman Sachs through this investment channel shows that Bitcoin is gradually becoming a part of the global financial system. André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, believes that:

“The impact of halving is diminishing, while macro factors and investment demand are becoming increasingly important.”

But will the past repeat itself?

Not everyone agrees with the view that 'the 4-year cycle is dead.' A recent report from CoinGlass indicates that the current price patterns of Bitcoin are very similar to previous cycles (2015–2018, 2018–2022). This report also highlights the slowdown of new capital flows and the fact that many long-term investors have taken profits at levels similar to previous euphoric phases – a sign that the market may have entered the final stages of the upward cycle.

Nick Hansen, CEO of the Bitcoin mining company Luxor, commented:

“Every time we think 'this time will be different,' the market proves otherwise: 'No, this time is still the same.'”

Conclusion: Where will Bitcoin go?

Bitcoin is currently at an unprecedented threshold: deeply integrated into the traditional financial system, possessing a massive institutional capital, but still facing unchanging market psychology rules. Will ETFs and macro factors be enough to break the 'curse' of the 4-year cycle, or will history repeat itself once again?

The answer will only be according to time – and with Bitcoin, 'surprise' is always the only certainty.