Since the arrival of the Administration, we have witnessed a series of Hollywood-style episodes that would make Ronald Reagan jump in his grave: "From the trade tsunami to the Ukrainian storm." Hollywood has never produced anything like it in its existence.

A series that starts with a trade war without proven scientific foundations, other than a campaign promise up to the Ukrainian storm through the economy of this powerful nation that no one can deny.

The USA is currently facing its real ills, which can be summed up in three (3) T's: Trump, Tariffs, and Tensions.

1. Regarding the trade war: Trump launched massive tariffs, with an effective tariff rate rising from about 2.3% at the end of 2024 to nearly 15-20% in 2025. These measures are both a catapult and a drag resulting in a contraction of the US GDP estimated up to -0.9%, or an average drop in domestic taxes of $1,300 per household.

According to the Fed, manufacturing jobs have dropped by about 1.4% despite limited gains in certain sectors. Notably, up to 245,000 jobs lost are revealed by other estimates.

According to J.P. Morgan and the NBER, they warn that the immediate effect is a resurgence of some manufacturing jobs but reveal net losses elsewhere: services, agriculture which weighed heavily, thus bringing real income down by about 1% by 2028.

2. The American economy is characterized by inflation, unemployment, bailouts, and the constant brake of its relentless procession.

The unemployment rate, if it does not skyrocket, has deteriorated. In July 2025, only 73,000 jobs were created against the 115,000 actually expected. An unemployment rate climbing to 4.2%.

Industrial sectors are being suffocated. For some medical equipment manufacturers from New York, the only reflex in Florida is to resort to layoffs, not without regret of course!

As for the Fed, Jerome Powell, President of this institution, warns that tariffs increase costs, slow down growth, and risk exacerbating stagflation. Monetary tools have structural limits. Unfortunately, his warnings are completely ignored. Why? Only history will tell us.

It is worth noting that this storm, like Christina, has also made political victims with the closure of USAID.

3. Regarding Ukraine, this episode starts from public confrontation to end in a strategic turnaround. For the record, it should be noted that in February of this year, Trump embarrassed Zelensky in the Oval Office with a humiliating, if not rude, speech where he accused him of 'playing at World War III' and expelled him without any agreement on mineral resources or security guarantees. Thus, suspending aid and support for a week and quickly resuming after a 30-day ceasefire was unfortunately brushed aside by Russia. Dictatorial presidents found excuses for their maneuvers.

Second round, April 2025, a new confrontation between the two Heads of State. Zelensky refuses any territorial concession where Trump suggested recognizing Crimea and blocking discussions without a ceasefire, the former believing that the diplomatic path will not go through abandoning his territory.

In the summer, the sun having partially melted their differences, Zelensky triumphantly returns to Washington with a European delegation, forcing a significant summit for a promise of security guarantees, potential trilateral discussions, armaments but still without NATO membership.

4. From the Fed under pressure between political pressure and institutional survival, there is indeed a choice to be made.

Jerome Powell, because it is from his institution that he leads, under constant pressure from Trump to cut rates to 1%, remains cautious regarding this as all macroeconomic indicators show that inflation is still above the 2% target and the economy is teetering between slowdown and inflationary volatility.

Growing political pressures that could lead to a potential change of Fed governors, in light of intense criticism, but Jerome Powell bluntly reminds the importance of institutional independence.

Thus, in this explosive cocktail, Trump has surfed on a brutal economic populism mixing massive tariffs, protectionist rhetoric, and diplomatic theatrics. Direct consequences, the markets have no two languages other than that of supply and demand, the USA emerges with a weakened economy, lost jobs, real losses for households, a Fed stretched thin, and a wavering transatlantic alliance.

In this chaos, Zelensky navigates between humiliations and comforts better from the confrontation in the Oval Office to a strong return to the White House with Europe. The international front remains unstable, but Ukrainian resistance holds strong.

KILONGO SAMBU Roger.

"Udiata yaku diata kodi."