Macroeconomic Outlook: Several Federal Reserve Officials Speak, U.S. Core PCE Data for July to be Released
Most of this month, Wall Street traders have flocked to the stock and bond markets, betting that the Federal Reserve is finally ready to start cutting interest rates again. The only thing they are waiting for is the green light from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to maintain this rally. On Friday, Powell took a dovish stance in a highly anticipated speech, triggering the largest cross-market rally since April. The cryptocurrency market surged, with Ethereum prices hitting a nearly four-year high. Gold rose by 1%. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
On Tuesday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak and participate in a panel discussion at the 100th anniversary conference of the Mexican central bank; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will give a keynote speech at the same conference; U.S. August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. August Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.
On Thursday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak; U.S. Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate Revision.
On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on monetary policy; U.S. July Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year, U.S. July Personal Spending Month-on-Month, U.S. July Core PCE Price Index Month-on-Month.
Looking ahead at the U.S. dollar index, with labor market data becoming the Federal Reserve's main focus, and market participants almost fully expecting a rate cut next month, the downward pressure on the dollar is expected to continue. Unless future employment reports significantly change the outlook, the dollar index is expected to remain under pressure, especially against those currencies supported by more hawkish central banks. For investors, a rate cut may be just around the corner, but the subsequent path of easing is far from smooth, and the uncertainty of policy outlook is becoming the new focus.
