There are no eternal gods in the crypto world, only eternal scythes and chives! In this SOL play, tonight will either be a bull's glory or a bear's banquet!

$205: The main force's 'meat grinder trap'.

In the last three days, SOL has bounced back to $205 three times before plummeting, with each transaction volume being 20% less than the previous one—it's like a dealer in a casino deliberately placing the dice on six, waiting for gamblers to think it's going big before suddenly changing the game! Experienced players understand: when the price repeatedly touches the same resistance level but fails to break out, there's a 99% chance it's the main force luring in buyers.

Here's a real example: last November when LINK soared to $18, the same script played out four times, resulting in a 40% crash on the fifth attempt. Now at $205 for SOL, it's like the main force has prepared a 'VIP guillotine' for retail investors—you think it's a breakout signal, but it's actually a crematorium for short positions!

$193: The last nail in the bull's coffin.

Now everyone online is shouting 'SOL $300 is not a dream', but the old players are only focused on the $193 death line! Why? Because the current leverage ratio is as high as 68%, and once it falls below:

  1. $420 million in liquidation orders are concentrated in the $193-$190 range.

  2. The main force distributed 1.2 million SOL above $200 (on-chain data can be verified).

  3. The rectangular consolidation has reached a critical point after 72 hours.

This is similar to when Bitcoin fell below $6,000 in March 2020, and all technical indicators failed—when the leverage ratio exceeds 60%, the candlestick chart is just playdough in the hands of the main force. The current sideways movement of SOL is truly the calm before the storm!

Is the mysterious funding a savior or a buyer of last resort?

But don't rush to cut losses! Three signals show that the bulls still have a chance to fight back:

  1. Golden cross of moving averages: the 5-day line crosses above the 30-day line, which is a typical signal of institutional positioning (see April 2023 before PEPE's surge).

  2. Big moves on-chain: a certain whale address increased its holdings of 100,000 SOL at $204, and the floating profit has exceeded $4 million at the current price.

  3. The hidden battle in the options market: although 65% of contracts are betting on $220, the bears have increased their positions by 300% below $200, indicating that both sides are gambling on tonight's options expiration.

Here's a key detail: when the long-short position ratio exceeds 1:3, a reverse surge often occurs. Just like in May 2021 when Dogecoin was hovering around $0.7, everyone thought it was going to crash, but Elon Musk's tweet directly caused a short squeeze!

Tonight at 10 PM: $120 million 'Crypto Normandy'.

Tonight, $120 million in SOL options will expire; this will be the bloodiest long-short battle of the year! Focus on three signals:

  1. Battle for $205: If it closes firmly above, the bulls will initiate 'helicopter money' mode.

  2. Options open interest: the current open interest of $220 call options is 2.3 times that of $200 put options.

  3. Unusual on-chain transfers: in the past 24 hours, the withdrawal volume of SOL from exchanges has surged by 47%, indicating that large holders are transferring their chips.

History won't simply repeat, but it will rhyme! The current trend of SOL is astonishingly similar to the night before the '519 crash' in 2021.

  • It all surged 300% first.

  • All are consolidating at key resistance levels for 72 hours.

  • The options market has shown unusual volume.

If history repeats itself, in the next 48 hours we will either witness SOL soaring to $220 or a 40% crash reminiscent of '519'!

Are you going to be the chives that get harvested, or become a dancer on the scythe? Leave your prediction in the comments (closing above/below $205), and I'll come back tomorrow morning to verify! Remember: in the crypto world, hesitation leads to defeat, decisiveness leads to free gifts—but at least you need to know what you're betting on! I am Shen Ce, and we'll see the truth in the comments!