The most dangerous moment in the crypto market is not the dramatic rises and falls, but the lack of any movement at all—like a salted fish, dried out of moisture but possibly hiding the next salty kick!

The truth about ETH's 'salted fish market': tranquility before the storm, or a halftime break during a bull market?

Today's ETH movement resembles a worker lounging on the couch over the weekend—prices are hovering around $4720, trading volume shrank to 20.2K, and the candlestick chart is barely moving. Some say this is a 'sage time after a surge', while others call it a 'sign of a trend reversal', but the truth might be more painful than you think: the market is waiting for a 'table-turning' reason.

1. Technical analysis: indicators are collectively 'lying flat', but don't be fooled by appearances.

  • BOLL channel has narrowed to extremes: the upper and lower bands are almost touching, with prices stuck around the mid-band at 4766, as if glued. Historical experience shows that this kind of 'narrowing' often means a big movement is coming—either soaring or free-falling.

  • MACD 'hesitating': red bars shorten, DIF and DEA lines curve but haven't crossed, resembling a couple's argument with unspoken words. Bulls want to push but fear being trapped; bears want to hit but are afraid of missing out.

  • RSI three-line 'entanglement': RSI1 (47.36), RSI2 (57.31), and RSI3 (61.77) are all clustered around 50, and both sides have lost the strength to argue.

Personal view: technical indicators are collectively 'playing dead', but don't forget—markets always stir after extreme calm. For example, in March 2023, BTC also went sideways for two weeks, resulting in a big bullish candle that crushed bears. ETH's current situation feels like low pressure before a storm.

2. Volume analysis: 'exhaustion' after a surge, or a scheme by the whales?

Yesterday, ETH suddenly surged over 15%, causing bears to cry out, but today the trading volume shrank to 20.2K. What does this indicate?

  • Bulls dare not chase high: the price hit an all-time high of 4888, profit-taking occurs as new funds remain cautious.

  • Bears dare not act: without any bad news, who would easily short? What if institutions pull a fast one, leaving you with nothing?

Tricky operation suggestions:

  • Short-term players: buy low and sell high in the 4700-4766 range, but must set stop losses (e.g., below 4680), as a break could lead to a drop to 4600.

  • Long-term players: keep a close eye on the US stock market opening at night, especially the Nasdaq. If tech stocks surge, ETH is likely to follow; if US stocks fall, it could drag down the crypto market.

3. On-chain data: Are whales 'playing dead' or brewing a big move?

Although it seems calm on the surface, on-chain data shows undercurrents:

  • ETH2.0 staking volume hits a new high: currently over 30 million ETH locked in staking contracts, reducing circulation, which is a long-term positive (supply-demand imbalance).

  • Exchange reserves increase: in the past week, exchange ETH balances rose by 2%, indicating that some whales might be 'secretly offloading' or preparing to dump.

Bull-Bear dividing line:

  • Bull market logic: increasing staking volume + ETF expectations; sideways movement might indicate institutions are quietly accumulating, similar to BTC's sideways movement for half a year before starting a bull market in 2020.

  • Bear market logic: global liquidity tightening (expectations of Fed rate cuts) + increasing exchange reserves; whales might be 'boiling the frogs', waiting for retail investors to take over before dumping.


"Currently, ETH resembles an overachiever before an exam—seemingly daydreaming, but actually running 100 scenarios in their mind!"

I am Shen Ce, the analyst in the crypto world who dares to speak the truth. Follow me to penetrate the fog and seize the next opportunity for wealth!