Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a key speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

Powell emphasized that while inflation risks remain, the labor market is facing downside risks, and therefore monetary policy may need to be adjusted.

He stated that he will continue to rely on data and not preset a path.

The market immediately interpreted this as a clear dovish signal, believing that a rate cut in September is almost certain.

In summary: the tone has shifted to dovish, and risk assets are bullish in the short term.

However, how far this round of increases can go entirely depends on the upcoming inflation (PCE, CPI) and employment (non-farm) data.

These three data points will collectively determine whether the 25 basis point rate cut in September is basically confirmed or if there will be further changes.

Personally, I lean towards the following path: mild inflation data at the end of August → soft employment data in early September → stable inflation data in mid-September → Fed rate cut of 25 basis points on September 17.

After the rate cut, easing expectations will be confirmed, the dollar will continue to weaken, and risk assets (stock market, cryptocurrencies) will rise accordingly. After BTC and ETH consolidate at high levels, funds will start to rotate into other high-beta coins (such as SOL, etc.), marking the beginning of altcoin season. #ETH创历史新高 $BTC