In the first three years after entering the market, I accumulated losses of over 100, and my mindset collapsed countless times. But later, I relied on the same method not only to recover my losses but also to earn several hundred more.
The core understanding gained through blood and tears is simply this: market rules always repeat, while the vast majority of people continually make the same mistakes.
90% of people chase news to buy high and sell low, being led by the market;
9% of people understand the ropes and learn to follow the pace of the big players;
Only 1% of people can calmly harvest the market relying solely on the most ordinary daily moving average.
Step One: Recognize the 'core role' of daily moving averages.
I compare the three key moving averages to three veteran traditional Chinese medicine doctors, each with their own emphasis:
5-day line = Emergency Department Director: Quick response, high sensitivity, able to capture short-term market changes in real-time;
30-day line = Internal Medicine Doctor: Balances stability and precision, capable of grasping medium-term trends while not overlooking key signals;
60-day line = Specialist Outpatient: Long-sighted, strong determination, skilled in judging long-term trend directions.
When the 'Emergency Department Director' (5-day line) breaks upward above the 'Internal Medicine Doctor' (30-day line) and 'Specialist Outpatient' (60-day line), forming an upward crossing pattern, the market is either about to welcome a rise or may face extreme volatility; this is a key signal that must be taken seriously.
Conversely, if the 5-day line falls below the 30-day line and the 60-day line, don’t hesitate, decisively reduce your position and exit to avoid subsequent risks.
Step Two: System rules always outweigh emotional impulses.
It is advisable to stick a note on the trading interface that says: 'Moving averages entangled, pause operations.'
What does this mean? When the 5-day line and the 30-day line repeatedly intersect like twisted dough, and the direction is unclear, blindly entering trades is like rolling dice to bet on odds; it relies entirely on luck, with a high probability of loss.
True trading experts only patiently wait for the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages to form a unified direction, like troops marching in formation, before taking action.
Step Three: 'Weld' discipline into every operation.
Too many people write their trading plans on paper, but when the market experiences even a slight 'spike' fluctuation, they are scared into immediately overturning the plan and losing their composure.
The greatest value of daily moving averages is to force you to become an 'execution machine'—as long as you see the preset moving average signals, you should act immediately, without hesitation, fantasy, or emotional interference.
Here’s a real story: I know a guy who trades based on daily moving averages. At his wedding, his phone suddenly popped up an alert for a break in the 5-day line. Without a word, he slipped into the restroom, quickly closed his position, and then came out to put on the ring. The bride was upset at first, but later, after seeing the account balance, she silently got him a top-notch monitor.
A golden saying etched in my mind:
You may occasionally doubt your judgment, but never doubt the moving averages that have already formed a trend consensus.
After seven years in the cryptocurrency world, I've come to truly understand: trading experts do not predict the future accurately, but can 'mindlessly' execute established rules. If you can endure the loneliness of waiting and execute discipline to the end, you have already positioned yourself in that profitable 1%.