After years of trading, I realized: Misjudging the cycle is more fatal than misjudging the direction
In my early years in the industry, I only focused on the 15-minute K-line, thinking I was quick to react and could make quick money.
As a result, when a major market movement hit in the opposite direction, I didn't even have time to stop-loss, and my account evaporated in an instant.
That night, I truly understood what 'market education' meant.
Later, a senior reminded me:
👉 'Focusing on one cycle is like staring at a single leaf while trying to find the entire forest.'
Since then, I learned to use multi-cycle interaction, and my account's survival rate skyrocketed.
Three-cycle survival method 👇
① 4-hour chart → Set the direction
The larger time frame is the compass, filtering out noise:
Higher lows = Uptrend, a pullback is a buying opportunity.
Lower highs = Downtrend, a rebound is mostly a trap.
Sideways movement = Don't act recklessly; fees can eat you alive.
② 1-hour chart → Find regions
Identify key points in the trend:
Support level: trend line/moving average/previous low, consider entering when close.
Resistance level: previous high/resistance area, a topping signal is the take-profit point.
③ 15-minute chart → Seize opportunities
Focus on entry and exit, not on the trend:
Look at patterns (golden cross, engulfing, bullish divergence).
Look at trading volume; low volume breakout = false move.
📌 Summary mantra:
4-hour sets direction → 1-hour finds regions → 15-minute waits for signals.
If cycles conflict, immediately stop and observe.
The harshest truth in the crypto world is:
You can survive by misjudging the direction, but misjudging the cycle is a slow suicide.
