What are the differences between this bull market and the last cycle's bull market?
In the cryptocurrency space, many people are obsessed with a single judgment criterion: some focus on technical analysis, some only look at sentiment, and some stubbornly adhere to "cycle timing points." The saying that the second year after Bitcoin halving often marks the end of a bull market has some merit, but relying solely on this standard can lead to deviations.
Looking back at the bull market of 2021, the halving cycle and macro environment acted together. The Federal Reserve's liquidity release drove the bull market, while high inflation and decreasing unemployment at the end of the year signaled interest rate hikes, with the end of the bull market coinciding with anticipated rate hikes, creating a "perfect overlap" between cycles and macro factors.
In the current market, those calling for a bear market still use the argument of "the second year after halving," yet they overlook the differences in the macro environment: the end of 2021 marked the beginning of an interest rate hike cycle, while we are currently in the middle of a rate-cutting cycle, with the Federal Reserve predicting no rate hikes before 2026, allowing the market to still enjoy accommodative benefits.
Cycles represent long-term rhythms, while macro policies determine short-term elasticity. In 2017, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction still saw Bitcoin complete its bull market; in 2021, the combination of macro and cycle factors applied the brakes, ending the bull market. The market in 2025 is more complex, with Bitcoin near new highs, Ethereum gradually starting up, but altcoins performing weaker than before, revealing cracks in the cycle's completeness.
The specific operational strategies can be divided into three categories:
1. Cycle faction: Recognizing the end of the bull market, gradually reducing positions after Bitcoin and Ethereum reach new highs, being cautious with altcoins, and clearing positions if the market sentiment turns negative. The advantage is clear discipline, while the disadvantage is the potential to miss out on a bull market extended by macro factors.
2. Macro faction: Valuing the rhythm of interest rate cuts, continuing to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum, moderately allocating altcoins but with low positions, and waiting for interest rate signals to realize profits. The advantage is the potential to benefit from an extended bull market, while the disadvantage is significant drawdowns if the cycle ends prematurely.
3. Hybrid faction: Layered positions, reducing part according to cycle logic and retaining part according to macro logic. Holding Bitcoin and Ethereum as a long-term base, engaging in short-term operations with some altcoins, while using another portion to speculate on macro extension opportunities, thereby maintaining a stable mindset.
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