$XRP

On August 22, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals in the U.S. officially issued an order approving the withdrawal of the appeal in the lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

According to documents shared by lawyer James Filan on X, this decision marks the end of one of the most significant legal battles in the cryptocurrency space.

This decision stems from a joint request submitted by Ripple and the SEC on August 7, in which both parties agreed to end the appeals process after the SEC voted to approve.

Under the agreement, XRP will not be classified as a security – a significant victory for Ripple. Each party will bear its own legal costs.

Stuart Alderoty, Ripple's General Counsel, believes this is a milestone that closes a nearly four-year chapter, encompassing the entire cryptocurrency industry.

This outcome helps Ripple stand alongside companies like Coinbase in successfully addressing SEC enforcement actions. At the same time, the removal of legal risks with XRP strengthens the likelihood of approval for an XRP-based spot ETF.

ETF Probability: the forecast remains optimistic

In February, Bloomberg's ETF analysts – Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart – estimated the probability of approval for a U.S. spot XRP ETF to be 65%. On Polymarket, users predicted this probability to reach 98% in early June, before dropping 10% after the SEC postponed several filings that month.

Despite the predicted rate decrease, Balchunas and Seyffart raised expectations to '90% or higher' on June 20.

In contrast, traders on Polymarket remain pessimistic, pushing the probability down to 62% in early August after reports surfaced that Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw opposed approval.

Balchunas remains optimistic: “Interestingly, the rate on Polymarket dropped to 62% after the ballot revealed Crenshaw's opposition, but (a) she opposes everything and (b) this is meaningless, as she is in the minority = we are not changing our forecast, still at 95%.”