Can ETH Surpass BTC? A Showdown in the Crypto World Under Institutional Heavyweights, Data Behind the 50% Probability and Life-and-Death Situations
Tom Lee suggests that there is a 50% chance that $ETH will surpass $BTC , and this is not unfounded; it is supported by the actual positioning of institutions, such as the mining company BitMine, which holds 1.15 million ETH and is increasing its holdings, essentially betting on the premium after the approval of the ETH ETF. If the SEC approves the ETH ETF in September, the ETH/BTC market cap ratio could surge from 0.29 to 0.5, corresponding to an ETH price exceeding $9,000.
On the data front, large whales have increased their holdings by 840,000 ETH, setting a new high for the year, and Coinbase futures have an annualized premium of 18%, indicating a surge in institutional hedging demand. The advantages of ETH lie in ecological income and yield characteristics, but the challenges are not small; the consensus on BTC as digital gold is hard to shake, and staking unlocks selling pressure that may form resistance, while the prosperity of the L2 ecosystem has not effectively fed back into the value of ETH.
Personally, I believe that ETH surpassing BTC is possible but not inevitable; it is a battle for public sentiment, and the key lies in three major signals: whether the daily net inflow into ETFs can maintain above 120 million, whether staking yields can rise back to 5%, and whether corporate treasury allocations will be large-scale.
Strategically, one could long the ETH/BTC exchange rate but should set a stop-loss at 0.028; overweight L2 protocols that can deliver value to ETH; use BTC put options to hedge against black swan risks.
Historical experience shows that in 2017, ETH reached a market cap share of 31% due to the ICO bubble, and if it breaks through 53% in 2025, the core driver will be the institutional re-evaluation of cash flow and compliance pricing.
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