The bull market of the altcoin season has begun!
The typical process for starting an altcoin season is as follows: Bitcoin (BTC) initiates the market → Ethereum (ETH) follows suit and rises → BTC exerts strength again → ETH breaks its all-time high (ATH) → Large market cap altcoins rise → BTC reaches new highs → ETH and large market cap altcoins also hit new highs → Medium market cap altcoins take off → Small market cap altcoins fully explode.
We are currently in the third phase, with ETH and large market cap altcoins reaching new highs, and we can expect the subsequent explosion of other altcoins.
In the last bull market in 2020, most altcoin narratives did not explode at the beginning, but rather fully started after ETH's price broke its historical high and rose 3 times. At that time, funds surged into new narratives—such as the gaming sector—pushing related tokens to soar 10, 20, or even 50 times, with Sandbox even skyrocketing 80 times. Even the most hollow and marginal gaming projects could achieve tenfold increases. This phenomenon did not truly occur until the latter part of the bull market, but once it started, it became a concentrated explosion period of wealth effect.
I believe this scene will repeat in this round of market. We are still in the first phase of the altcoin season—during the dominance of BTC and ETH. We need to wait for ETH to break above $5000 and for mainstream altcoins to achieve 2-3 times increases before market funds will frantically search for the next narrative. The most likely candidates to take over will be AI, RWA, and gaming, as these three areas have been efficiently penetrated by the cryptocurrency industry and have achieved profitability, possessing strong narratives and high potential returns.
The previous round of gaming narratives allowed countless people to turn thousands of dollars into millions in assets; this time, the scale of market funds is larger and the risk appetite is higher. Once it starts, the driving force of funds will only be stronger. For investors, the key is not to chase anxiously now, but to patiently wait and layout in advance. When the signal for the narrative switch appears, the climax of the altcoin season will truly arrive.
Understanding market structure will make it clear that the altcoin season will definitely come, but the form may be completely different from the past two rounds. Previously, the number of altcoins was limited, funds were relatively concentrated, and almost all leading sectors would see a general rise; now there are over a million different coins on the market, competition is extremely fragmented, and funds cannot cover all targets.
This means that this round of the market is more likely to see a "localized altcoin season"—funds will concentrate on a few sectors or individual tokens with strong narratives, strong communities, and strong liquidity, forming a local frenzy, while most coins will still be overlooked by the market. For investors, opportunities still exist, but the probability of selecting the right targets is far lower than in the past, and currently, the AI sector is more promising.
The real altcoin season has not yet begun. The flow path of smart money is usually: first from BTC to ETH, then into major market cap coins, and finally spreading to small and medium market cap tokens. The current market has just entered the first half; the real "altcoin frenzy" is still on the way and may continue until November. In other words, the rise we see now is just the "appetizer"; the real "main course" has not yet been served.
