August 23 Market Interpretation
Yesterday, Powell's speech at the conference directly ignited market sentiment.
He mentioned:
Inflation shows signs of rising;
Employment remains relatively stable;
A key phrase - "will adjust policy," was interpreted by the market as almost certain rate cuts in September.
The results quickly manifested:
The US dollar index weakened, and non-US assets collectively strengthened;
BTC returned to 117500;
ETH set a new stage high, nearing 4900;
Gold remains pressured above 3400.
Today's data reminder: No important data on Saturday.
Technical Analysis
BTC (Bitcoin)
Structurally, the market is still in a downward framework, but under positive stimuli, prices have returned to the central area of 115700-120500.
In the short term, there is a correction demand at the pressure point of 117500.
On the 4-hour K-line, a strong rise + a rebound from the previous three K-lines indicates that attention should be paid to volatility recovery here.
MACD shows: The fast and slow lines have golden crossed below the zero axis for the second time, with strong volume in the momentum column.
👉 Operational Thinking:
Long positions near 114500, stop loss 11390, target 116500-117500-119500;
Short positions near 117100, stop loss 117600, target 114500-115800.
ETH (Ethereum)
The downward structure has been broken, and a new upward main structure has formed;
Breaking above 5000 is just a matter of time, but the short-term rise has been too fast and there is a need for a pullback to solidify;
On the 4-hour K-line, channel breakout + an upward extension to 4060 indicates that the market has not ended;
MACD: The fast and slow lines maintain upward movement above the zero axis, and the momentum column is shrinking, indicating that a pullback may occur at any time.
👉 Operational Thinking:
Long positions near 4537, stop loss 4513, target 4600-4650-4730-4848;
Short positions near 4830, stop loss 4847, target 4350-4450-4580-4637-4725.
✅ Summary:
BTC is still in a downward structure, but market positivity has given the trend another chance to rise;
ETH has completely broken out of the downward pattern, and the breakthrough at the 5000 level is just a matter of timing.
In terms of operations, focus on going long with the trend, and be mindful of hedging short positions at resistance levels.
