1. Summary

$ENA just "spiked" up to $0.76 thanks to volume spike, whale accumulating (200M ENA withdrawn from the exchange), and TVL/USDe skyrocketing ($3.5B TVL, August 2025). Major drama: Buybacks from Ethena Labs and the synthetic dollar narrative heating up FOMO, but RSI 1H ~85 (terribly overbought) and funding rate risk is the "alarm bell". Volume is the "savior" to maintain momentum!

2. Technical Analysis

  • Technical: ENA is "sitting" at $0.76, near support $0.69–$0.70, deeper at $0.62–$0.63. Resistance $0.84–$1.00 like a "firewall". RSI 1H ~85 (overbought, pullback risk), volume spike but needs to be maintained (>40% MA20) to breakout >$0.78. Losing $0.69 means "disaster", crashing down to $0.62. MA20 crossing MA50 (August 2025) signals potential bull run.

  • Fundamental: Ethena’s USDe (synthetic dollar) reaches TVL $3.5B (+25% last month), thanks to basis-trade model (hedged staking yield). Ethena Labs announces buyback of 100M ENA ($75M) and withdraws 200M ENA from CEX (Lookonchain). Rumors of USDe integrating with major Layer-1 (Arbitrum, Q4 2025) and ETF filing (50% approval odds) add FOMO. However, funding rate volatility and unlock 150M ENA (December 2025) pose a "bomb" risk.

  • Sentiment: Whale withdrawing tokens and increasing TVL heat up FOMO, but overbought RSI makes traders "sweat profusely". Weak volume is a "red flag"; breakout lacking volume easily becomes a bull trap, unconfirmed pullback is a "black hole" swallowing capital. X posts show hype for USDe, but retail worries about funding rate reversal.

3. Strategy

  • Entry:

    • Scenario A (Momentum): "Fire" when 1H close >$0.78, volume spikes (>40% MA20). Use limit order to avoid slippage "sharp cutting".

    • Scenario B (Pullback): "Watch" to buy at $0.69–$0.70 if there is wick rejection + 1H reversal candle (like bullish engulfing). Add position at $0.62 if the price "falls flat".

  • Stop-loss (mandatory): Momentum SL = $0.64; Pullback SL = $0.615.

  • Take-profit: TP1: $0.84–$0.90 (take 60% at near resistance); TP2: $1.00 ("soaring" target, scale-out gradually).

  • Exit triggers: TVL/USDe decline, funding rate reversal, unlock 150M ENA, or volume drop when RSI >85 → "run away" immediately. Follow X posts about whale moves and funding news.