After the Federal Reserve's Harker did not support a rate cut in September, the CME's probability for a September rate cut has dropped to 73.5%, and risk markets have also declined. The old man said that Powell's performance at the Jackson Hole annual meeting tomorrow is very likely to happen, but I can imagine Trump holding the Federal Reserve's Cook accountable, as Trump is already investigating all the board members who do not support the rate cut (voting committee).

Cook's situation is likely a warning to others, so although the expected probability of a rate cut in September has decreased, Trump is expected to use some 'dirty' tactics to increase his odds. If there is no rate cut in September, it should be quite a blow to Trump, who represents the current AI and cryptocurrency sectors of the US stock market.

The likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut is low, while 25 basis points is still possible. Theoretically, when the market's expectations differ from the Federal Reserve's, the market has not won since 2022, but it's hard to say this time. If some voting committee members are not so 'clean', they might either choose to resign (like Kugler) or might choose to comply. Of course, those who are not in trouble, like Powell, will definitely be fearless.

That said, I think it is very likely that Powell will not provide a clear statement on whether there will be a rate cut or not in September at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. #BNB 1000u冲ba