Reports from CryptoQuant suggest that large holders are moving aggressively while small investors are exiting the market. In the last week, wallets linked to key Bitcoin participants acquired over 16,000 BTC during a price drop. At the same time, retail investors have been selling amid weakness, accumulating losses and widening the gap between whales and small traders. Analysts see this as a possible indication that the market may be forming a local bottom.
Seasonal pressure and Fed expectations add more complexity to these moves. September is rarely favorable for markets. Data from the last 35 years shows that the S&P 500 falls an average of 1% during this month, and Bitcoin often mirrors this seasonal trend. Additionally, a Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16, where traders attribute an 80% chance to a 0.25% rate cut, creates a cocktail of uncertainties. For some, a cut signals potential relief for risk assets. For others, the historical pattern overshadows any short-term optimism. Either way, volatility seems inevitable.
Amid this macroeconomic backdrop, a single transaction raised alarms. BlackRock transferred over 10,584 BTC—valued at about $1.20 billion—to Coinbase in one day. This type of move rarely goes unnoticed. Transfers to exchanges typically imply readiness to sell, and the market responded immediately. Bitcoin dropped to just over $112,000, a level that previously acted as a springboard for the rally that took prices to the record $124,000 in August. Traders are now watching this number closely, questioning whether it can act as a safety net once again.
The technical signals, however, do not tell a unified story. The relative strength index is at 32.90, scraping the oversold zone, which can sometimes indicate an exhaustion in selling. But the MACD is still weak, with its line remaining below the signal mark, suggesting a negative momentum. This division in the indicators keeps traders uncertain about whether the next big move will be up or down.
The cryptocurrency market is at a crossroads. If $112,000 holds, a recovery is on the table. If it breaks, the downside could accelerate, especially if institutions start unloading more Bitcoin. Add in whale accumulation, seasonal weakness, and an imminent Fed decision, and the short-term outlook looks less like a straight line and more like a curve with surprises waiting around the corner. For now, the battle is clear. It’s between confidence and fear, and the outcome may depend on what happens before the close of this month.
