The price of Stellar (XLM) could drop 40%
One of the first warnings comes from the derivatives market. Open interest, which measures the value of active futures contracts, often shows how much leverage is behind a movement.
When open interest is high, traders can push prices sharply in either direction, often triggering squeezes.
On July 18, Stellar's open interest reached $588.53 million while the XLM price was rising. That increase in leverage helped drive the movement, with short squeezes adding momentum. Since then, open interest has fallen to $306.22 million, a decrease of nearly 50%.