1. Summary

$ETH is “sprinting” around $4,820 after the “dovish” signal from Powell (Jackson Hole 2025), activating risk-on capital flow. Major drama: Spot ETF inflows explode ($1.2B last week) and whales accumulate 150k ETH causing supply on exchanges to “dwindle”. RSI 1H ~80 (hot as a furnace), but volume needs to “scream” to avoid a bull trap!

2. Technical, Fundamental & Sentiment Analysis

  • Technical: ETH clings to the peak of $4,820, support at $4,320–$4,380, resistance at $4,880–$5,000 like a “death door”. RSI 1H ~80 (overbought, be careful of corrections), large volume spike but is “fading”. Breakout needs a 1H close >$4,887 with volume soaring (>40% MA20). Final support at $4,060; losing this area means “disaster”, plunging straight to $3,800. Golden cross (MA50 crosses MA200) confirms bull trend for August 2025.

  • Fundamental: Powell hints at interest rate cuts (0.5% expected Q4 2025) pushing risk-on, spot ETH ETF (Grayscale, BlackRock) attracts $1.2B last week. On-chain shows whales accumulating 150k ETH, reducing exchange supply by 12% (CryptoQuant). Ethereum L2 (Arbitrum, Optimism) handles 80% of DeFi transactions, coupled with rumors of EIP-7777 (zkEVM upgrade, Q1 2026) fueling FOMO. However, whale concentration (22% of supply) poses a risk.

  • Sentiment: Powell and ETF inflows make traders “crazy”, but RSI is overbought and volume is “fading” causing people to “sweat”. A breakout lacking volume easily becomes a bull trap; an unconfirmed pullback is a “black hole” swallowing capital. Posts on X show hype for $6k, but retail still fears correction.

3. Trading Strategy

  • Entry:

    • Scenario A (Breakout): “Fire” when 1H close >$4,887, volume surges (>40% MA20). Use limit orders to avoid severe slippage.

    • Scenario B (Pullback): “Lurk” to buy at $4,320–$4,380 if there is a wick rejection + 1H reversal candle (like bullish engulfing). Add position at $4,060 if the price “falls flat”.

  • Stop-loss (mandatory): Breakout SL = $4,746; Pullback SL = $4,060.

  • Take-profit: TP1: $5,200–$5,500 (lock in 60% at near resistance); TP2: $6,000 (target to “fly high”, scale out gradually).

  • Exit triggers: Volume diminishes during rally, large CEX inflows + whale dump, or Fed “turns hawkish” → “run away” immediately. Monitor X posts about ETF inflows and whale moves.