🚨 Powell’s speech just dropped some bombs. Here’s what you need to know:

1️⃣ Jobs: Looks stable on the surface, but immigration collapse = fragile balance. If demand cracks, unemployment could spike fast.

2️⃣ Inflation: Tariffs push prices up, overall still near target. But the real risk? 👉 policy mistakes could trigger second-wave inflation.

⚖️ Translation: The Fed is stuck in a dilemma. Tighten too much = jobs crash. Ease too fast = inflation comeback.

3️⃣ Policy pivot:

• 2020 AIT was for a “low inflation + low rates” world.

• 2025 = “high inflation + high rates.”

• AIT is dead. Back to flexible inflation targeting. (Yes, they admitted the old playbook doesn’t work anymore.)

4️⃣ Between the lines:

• Hikes are DONE. Cuts? Only if the data breaks.

• Tariffs = one-off shock, not a trigger for instant tightening.

• Shrinking labor supply → lower potential growth, higher long-run neutral rate (r).

5️⃣ Market takeaways:

• Treasuries: Yields won’t spike much higher, but forget 2010s ultra-low rates.

• Stocks: Consumers slowing, tariffs rising → earnings under pressure.

• USD & Bitcoin: Dollar strong short term, but if jobs tank → markets flip to rate-cut bets. Bitcoin loves liquidity swings.

🔥 Bottom line:

The Fed is at a crossroads. Dollar still strong… but the real breakout trade when the tide turns could be Bitcoin.

$ETH $BTC $BNB

#PowellSpeech #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETH大涨