#HEMIBinanceTGE #FamilyOfficeCrypto
Paul's speech has just dropped some bombs. Here’s what you need to know:
1️⃣ Jobs: Appear stable at the surface, but the end of immigration = fragile balance. If there are cracks in demand, unemployment can rise rapidly.
2️⃣ Inflation: Tariffs are driving prices up, overall still close to target. But the real danger? 👉 Policy mistakes could trigger a second wave of inflation.
⚖️ Translation: The Fed is caught in a dilemma. Tightening too much = job crash. Easing too quickly = return of inflation.
3️⃣ Policy pivot:
• 2020 AIT "low inflation + low rates" was for the world.
• 2025 = "high inflation + high rates."
• AIT is dead. Return to flexible inflation targeting. (Yes, they acknowledged that the old playbook no longer works.)
4️⃣ Between the lines:
• Hiking has happened. Cut? Only if the data breaks.
• Tariffs = one-off shock, not an immediate tightening trigger.
• Shrinking labor supply → lower potential growth, higher long-term neutral rate (r).
5️⃣ Market takeaways:
• Treasuries: yields won’t rise much, but forget about the extremely low rates of 2010.
• Stocks: consumers are slowing down, tariffs are rising → earnings are under pressure.
