Alphractal, an analytics platform, announced a new chart package and methodology notes on X on August 21, a set of emerging market structure and on-chain signals suggesting Dogecoin may be preparing for a new breakout. The company argues that miner resilience, the "network stress index" stabilizing, and bands arising from models like Alpha Price and CVDD are lining up in a way that historically has led to significant trend acceleration for DOGE.
Is Dogecoin Back to 1 USD?
Alphractal wrote: "Dogecoin miners remain extremely resilient, with hashrate activity heading towards record highs," before posing the core question for their latest research: "Could trading around the Real Market Average Price and models like Alpha Price and CVDD pave the way for the possibility of DOGE reaching new record highs?"
The foundation of this call is a composite measure the company refers to as the Network Stress Index. This index combines three aspects of chain health and pressure—“Fee Stress (fees/market cap – 40% weight), Hash Stress (30-day hashrate volatility – 30% weight), [and] Supply Stress (7-day active supply volatility – 30% weight).”
As Alphractal summarizes in their analysis report: “Higher values indicate potential volatility or significant shifts. Lower values reflect a balanced network across economic, security, and operational aspects.” In the current mode, the company states this indicator “signals stability — showing no warning signs of network risk.”
In addition to raw network conditions, Alphractal applies two pricing and cycle tools they consider reliable for UTXO chains like DOGE, Bitcoin, and Litecoin. "Our Alpha Price model acts as a magnet for sentiment," the company notes, describing a behavioral anchor point that prices tend to follow over time.
This combines with the adjusted version of Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), an indicator that tracks the time-weighted value of coins moving on-chain. Alphractal writes: "Our advanced adjusted CVDD has proven to be one of the most accurate tools for identifying peaks and troughs in UTXO blockchains such as DOGE, BTC, and LTC."
The positioning of these models is currently the focus of the thesis. The article states: "Currently, the CVDD peak is at $0.54, but it could rise higher as dormant Dogecoin moves - potentially pushing the target above $1." This clearly implies that: if a price surge attracts supply that has been inactive for a long time, the upper band will rise, turning $0.54 from a ceiling into what Alphractal calls "just a starting floor, with network activity enthusiasm driving further uptrend."
The company views the miners' position as a solid pillar. With hashrate activity "heading towards record highs," the view is that security spending and miner participation will position the network well "for a rise in global demand." That strength, along with price action concentrated near what Alphractal calls the True Market Mean Price, is presented as the setup phase preceding previous Dogecoin expansions on the Network Stress, Alpha Price, and CVDD charts attached on August 21.
However, this message is not entirely optimistic. Alphractal concludes the article with a risk warning adjusted to the current microstructure of the cryptocurrency market: “This opportunity may be sustainable… However, with leverage increasing across cryptocurrency markets, traders need to be cautious of unexpected traps and mass liquidations as DOGE is on a growth trajectory.” In other words, while the complex model outlines a positive context, positioning dynamics and derivatives could cause sharp downturn shocks along the way.
Overall, Alphractal's work provides a straightforward, verifiable roadmap: a stable network, resilient miners, and price adjustments according to historically significant on-chain bands will create room for upside, with the "Peak" CVDD currently marked at $0.54 and potentially rising above $1 if dormant supply is awakened. Whether Dogecoin can convert that setup into a full breakout will depend on the interaction between organic spot demand and a leverage market susceptible to sudden squeezes in both directions.
