Powell is about to be driven crazy by Trump. He is now afraid to be hawkish, fearing that Trump will take the opportunity to shift blame. I don't think his speech will be too firm; it will likely be ambiguous. The market may be a bit chaotic at first, and we will see how the data after September plays out.

Powell's speech in the early morning, I see many people think it will be very 🦅, but personally, I think the probability is low. The reason is simple: Powell has already been bitten badly by Trump.

Look at the recent points:
The building renovation budget has been wildly hyped by Trump's camp;

The Cook incident directly called for Powell's associates to roll out;

The recent pullback in the US stock market, Trump has been building momentum on the sidelines, just waiting for an opportunity to shift the blame.

Powell understands that the market is tense right now, and any hawkish statement will be magnified infinitely. Moreover, if he goes hawkish, Trump will definitely take advantage of the situation, directly blaming Powell for the decline in US stocks, forcing him to become the "target of criticism."

Powell is a smart person and will not confront this situation head-on. With a normal mindset, he will choose ambiguous statements, neither truly hawkish nor truly dovish, leaving some room for market interpretation, thereby giving Trump no leverage.

So my judgment is: Tonight, the market is unlikely to hear any particularly "hard" hawkish signals. More likely is balanced wording, the market may first experience emotional fluctuations for a while, but the real trend still needs to be seen after the data in September.