๐ August 22, 2025 โ Just days before Jerome Powell takes the stage at Jackson Hole, markets are on edge and September rate cut bets are fading fast.
๐ฅ Whatโs Happening?
๐ 71.5% โ 25%: The probability of a 25bps cut in September has plunged, according to multiple market trackers.
๐ฐ Investing.com: Odds drop to 71.5% after jobless claims spike.
๐ Ed Yardeni (via Seeking Alpha): Places odds below 50%, citing sticky inflation.
๐ฐ Reuters: Markets now price in just 25% chance of a cut as manufacturing beats expectations.
๐ Why the Shift?
โ๏ธ Cooling Data: Rising unemployment claims shook early optimism.
๐ฅ Inflation Still Hot: Persistent price pressures = no rush to ease.
๐ญ Manufacturing Strength: PMI numbers show surprising resilience, keeping the Fed cautious.
๐ก The Big Picture
๐ Markets went from โcut is comingโ to โmaybe not yetโ in just weeks.
๐ Odds now hover between 25%โ70%, depending on which camp you believe.
๐ All eyes on Powellโs speech: Will he signal a delayโฆ or hint at a surprise cut?
๐ฐ Why Crypto Should Care
โก A delayed cut = stronger USD = short-term pressure on BTC & ETH.
๐ A surprise cut = instant liquidity pump โ altcoins could fly.
๐ Timing is everything: volatility is guaranteed.
๐ Final Take
The Fed has flipped the scriptโagain. Traders, buckle up: the next Powell headline could trigger Bitcoinโs next big move.
โ Do you think Powell will cut in Septemberโor will he play it safe? Drop your call ๐
