The story
One step closer – The extraordinary meetings at the White House featured a long list of European leaders, gratitude from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy toward his American counterpart Donald Trump, and US promises for security guarantees for Kyiv. Trump then called Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an attempt to secure a trilateral summit including Zelenskyy to end the war.
Why it matters
Third and final summit – American and European security guarantees may convince Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, believing there would be no further invasion after the smaller 2014 incursion and the current massive war, which began in 2022. Will Putin be able to swallow Western military backing for Kyiv? Merely meeting Zelenskyy, whose country he tried to conquer, is a sign of recognition of Ukraine, which some Russians see as a part of their country. Moreover, a summit would signal to the world that the war is nearing its end. That is bearish for Gold and Oil, bullish for the Euro, Stocks, and also for the Russian bear and all related assets.
What’s next
Breakthrough in Budapest? Reports are suggesting that the trilateral summit will be held in the Hungarian capital before the end of this month. The location and timing matter less than having it. All eyes are on official announcements from Moscow, at least until the Federal Reserve (Fed) developments arrive.$B