The bull market of A-shares has been established, and many people in the forum are discussing whether this is a fast bull or a slow bull. Here are my thoughts.
（1）Historical Bull Market of A-shares
First, let's take a look at what previous bull markets were like.
① From 1999 to 2001, first a leveraged bull, then adjustments leading to a fundamental bull. This bull market is quite distant, having experienced a short-term surge driven by the tech bubble, before shifting towards cyclical sectors like energy. Its characteristics include high volatility and pure speculation, leaving many valuable lessons for A-shares.
② From 2005 to 2007, a comprehensive bull market resonating with institutional dividends and profit growth. This round of the bull market occurred against the backdrop of stock reform, exchange rate reform, and macro prosperity, particularly in the later stages where blue-chip stocks led the way, becoming the market focus. At that time, there was a significant positive expectation, as the reform of the RMB exchange rate system placed it in an appreciation channel, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets.
③ From 2008 to 2009, a fundamental bull driven by economic recovery after the financial crisis. Before this, following the outbreak of the global financial crisis, China emerged from the trough first due to large-scale fiscal stimulus and monetary easing. This phase of the bull market was mainly driven by the recovery of cyclical products such as steel and machinery.
④ From 2014 to 2015, the liquidity bull market. This was a typical liquidity-driven bull market, where expectations for reform were high, but profit support was insufficient, and sector rotation exhibited characteristics of 'big finance on stage, technology growth as a relay.' Although market enthusiasm was high, due to a lack of fundamental support, a significant correction eventually occurred.
（2）This round of the bull market is a slow bull
This time, A-shares are not only a slow bull but also a systematic slow bull. Why do I say this?
① The macro environment has completely changed. Previous bull markets were either massive liquidity injections (2015), strong stimulus to save the market (2008), or overheating of the economy (2007). This time is completely different; economic growth is not high, but the structure is quietly improving, like a person who no longer relies on adrenaline for a sprint, but begins to build muscle — the 'new economy' muscles of high-end manufacturing, new energy, AI, and innovative drugs are becoming increasingly robust.
② The nature of funds is different. In the past, leveraged funds and speculative funds dominated, going crazy when rising and even crazier when falling. Now, it is the national team + long-term funds providing support. Insurance, social security, and sovereign wealth funds are entering, representing 'patient capital.' These funds have a long-term perspective and are not here for quick profits. Looking specifically at July's policies, the national team is using real money to stabilize the market, and the evaluation cycle for insurance capital has been extended from 1 year to 5 years... The characteristics of this money are: slow, but stable.
③ Residents' assets are undergoing a major relocation. Bank deposit interest rates are about to fall below 1%, and the 160 trillion yuan in residents' deposits are looking for new outlets. Apart from the stock market, there is no place that can accommodate such a large volume. But this time, it's not like the 2015 leveraged speculation; instead, it is slowly flowing in through funds and wealth management.
④Industrial upgrading is happening. DeepSeek runs top large models using low-cost GPUs; Chinese AI is no longer just chasing. This year, innovative drugs sold abroad for $60 billion, surpassing last year's total; humanoid robots jumped from the Spring Festival Gala to the Beijing Marathon; the export of 'new three items' like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and lithium batteries is propping up half the sky. These industries are not just stories; they are genuinely making money and truly capturing global market share.
A-shares are at a critical period of transitioning from old to new momentum. The trend of manufacturing replacing real estate to support the economy is becoming increasingly obvious, which means that in the foreseeable future, emerging industries represented by technological innovation and high-end manufacturing will become important forces driving economic growth.
（3）Two major directions
The main line remains unchanged: hardcore high technology and super high dividends, but the scope has been appropriately widened.
① Hardcore high technology - new economy
AI, innovative drugs, robotics, new energy, semiconductors... these are the core assets of China for the next 10 years. They may not hit the daily limit every day, but will gradually trend upwards, much like the 'seven giants' of the US stock market. Delving into these fields is the way to earn the dividends of transformation.
② Super high dividends - old economy
High dividend yields, finance, machinery, and cyclical sectors all have room for valuation recovery as long as the economy does not collapse. Among them, machinery and cyclical sectors have already seen more significant declines, leading to higher odds (potential return rates).
Overall, 'increased risk appetite + declining interest rates' brings about a 'systematic bull market,' while 'China's rise + China's advantages' creates a 'slow bull' pattern — this logic is sound. Rather than worrying about whether it's a bull market, it's better to think about how to find your own 'slow' wealth in this 'slow bull.' $东方财富(SZ300059)$