The most anticipated event right now is the Jackson Hole annual meeting at 10 PM tonight, which is the most significant meeting before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September. It is likely that the next interest rate cut will be directly discussed at this meeting. According to the current general market view, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is not small; if Powell leans dovish in his speech tonight — that is, favors easing, then the rate cut will basically be secured.

In fact, Trump has also made a lot of efforts for this matter, constantly pressuring the Federal Reserve. I looked back at the market performance after the Jackson Hole meetings over the past few years; overall, there were more occasions of rises than falls, which is a relatively positive reference.


Recently, the crypto market has pulled back, which is somewhat related to the US stock market. The Nasdaq fell from 21,800 to 21,100, and after reaching a new daily high, it turned back down, so it is reasonable for Bitcoin and Ethereum to pull back as well. Especially for Ethereum, the main funds driving this rally originally came from the US stock market, making it more correlated with the stock market. As for Ethereum's pullback being larger than Bitcoin's, it is mainly because it had previously risen too much — for any investment target, volatility is linked to market capitalization; with Ethereum's current market cap, this pullback is actually acceptable.

However, I personally feel that the impact of tonight's meeting may be limited, unless Powell clearly states that interest rates will be cut. After all, there is still nearly a month until the interest rate meeting on the 16th-17th of next month, and there may be other variables in between; the market won't determine direction based solely on one speech.


Looking at the market itself, we are currently in a consolidation phase after a pullback. Bitcoin has temporarily held the position of 112,000, while Ethereum is fluctuating around the support level of 4,200. Considering the situation in the US stock market, the risk of further downward breaking is not significant at the moment; the key is when it can start to rally again. The main force behind this rally is US stock funds, so theoretically, Ethereum's trend will stick closer to the US stock market moving forward. Moreover, there are funds actually buying Ethereum, following a path similar to that of Bitcoin 'MicroStrategy' — that is, like MicroStrategy accumulating Bitcoin, some institutions are continuously increasing their holdings, and with this backing, there is no need to panic in the short term.


Lastly, I still have to remind everyone that although the speculative sentiment in the crypto circle is particularly strong, I still recommend leaning towards value as much as possible. For example, the coin that Ye posted yesterday, if you speculate on it, there is a high probability of suffering significant losses; the subsequent trend is unlikely to be good.

Finding projects with valuable backing is very important, just like Ethereum; you have to truly understand its value and believe in its logic. If you only hold a speculative mindset, it is very easy to be unsettled by short-term fluctuations. Additionally, for those coins that have risen too much in the short term, like those recently asking about OKB — if you have already made money, then that's good; but if you haven't entered yet, I wouldn't recommend chasing anymore. It's not to say it will definitely drop, but when most people are sharing their gains and feel they can profit, the risk of entering at that time is already quite high.

#MarketPullback #CryptoRally #HEMIBinanceTGE

The crypto circle is not short of opportunities; finding opportunities that suit you and that you can understand is enough; there is no need to crowd around every commotion.

Follow @月姐财经 , to catch this bull market.

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