#MarketPullback
Fed Rate Cut Odds Shift Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
📅 August 22, 2025 — Markets are on edge as Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to speak at Jackson Hole, and expectations for a September rate cut are rapidly evolving.
Rate Cut Odds: Market Sentiment in Flux
invest reports the probability of a 25bps cut in September has dipped to 71.5%, as rising jobless claims unsettle previous optimism.
Ed Yardeni, via Seeking Alpha, now places odds below 50%, citing sticky inflation and ongoing economic resilience.
Reuters puts the chances even lower — just 25% — pointing to strong manufacturing data countering earlier weak labor indicators.
Why the Shift?
Cooling Labor Data: A spike in jobless claims has cast doubt on the Fed’s urgency to ease policy.
Stubborn Inflation: Price pressures remain elevated, keeping the Fed cautious despite softening elsewhere.
Solid Manufacturing: Strong PMI readings suggest the economy may not need stimulus just yet.
Crypto Takeaway for Binance Square
Markets once priced in a likely rate cut for September — now, confidence has eroded. With odds ranging between 25%–70%, all eyes are on Powell.
$BTC holders, DeFi participants, and macro-focused traders should watch his speech closely. Any dovish pivot could reignite bullish momentum — or, if the Fed holds firm, trigger near-term volatility.