"When the Federal Reserve speaks, the crypto world trembles!" This is not an exaggeration—tonight at 10 PM (Beijing time), Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting is like a 'ticking time bomb', ready to explode the crypto market into a surge or a crash! Whether you are a veteran in Bitcoin or a newcomer, this speech may determine whether you 'feast' or 'get beaten' next month!
Rate cut expectations: 25 basis points, is it 'honey' or 'poison'?
What is the market most concerned about now? Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September!
If Powell says 'a rate cut is necessary':
The dollar would deflate like a punctured ball; while cryptocurrencies, as 'borderless assets', would soar like they were injected with adrenaline! Bitcoin could surge directly to $120,000, Ethereum could break $4,500, and even altcoins could 'rise dramatically'—like AI concept coin XPIN and RWA track ONDO, they might even multiply several times!If Powell says 'rate cut? Let's wait and see':
The dollar would immediately 'perk up', and cryptocurrencies would be doused with cold water, diving straight down! Bitcoin could fall below $100,000, even testing the $95,000 support level; leveraged players would suffer even more, with the total liquidation amount across the network possibly exceeding $5 billion, and bulls would be 'collectively harvested'!
My opinion:
Currently, the market's expectations for a rate cut have decreased (71% probability), but Powell is best known for 'managing expectations'—he may first 'play Taiji', saying 'we need to look at the data before deciding', causing the market to panic first, and then adjust his strategy based on the response. So, tonight, don't rush to chase highs or panic sell; it's safer to wait until the speech is over to take action!
Trump's 'pressure': Will Powell 'back down'?
Powell's speech is not just an economic issue, but a political game!
Trump has recently been 'fanning the flames', openly calling for 'Powell must cut rates', and it has been reported that he is looking for a successor (like former Fed governor Warsh). Why? Because a rate cut can stimulate the economy and help him gain votes in the election!
If Powell responds firmly: 'The Federal Reserve is independent and not subject to political interference':
The market would breathe a sigh of relief, feeling that the policy won't be erratic; cryptocurrencies might experience short-term fluctuations, but in the long run, the direction of rate cuts won't change, and there will still be opportunities in the crypto world.
Case Study: In 2019, Trump called Powell an 'enemy', and the S&P 500 plummeted 2.6% that day, but later the Fed still cut rates at its own pace, and the market gradually stabilized.If Powell compromises: 'We will consider economic data and flexibly adjust policies':
The market would panic—because this would mean 'the Federal Reserve might be led by the White House', inflation expectations could spiral out of control, which would be bearish for the crypto world in the long run!
My opinion:
Powell is an 'old fox', he won't directly confront Trump, but he won't completely compromise either. He might say, 'We focus on the data but maintain independence'—this way, he can soothe the market while giving the White House some face.So, don't expect him to give a clear answer; the key is to watch whether his tone is 'firm' or 'weak'!
Crypto Survival Guide: Three things you must do at 10 PM tonight!
Clear leverage, ensure safety:
Regardless of long or short positions, do not open high leverage during the speech! Market volatility may be more intense than you think, a flash crash could wipe you out!Prepare cash, wait to buy the dip:
If Bitcoin drops to $95,000 and Ethereum drops to $4,000, don't hesitate, just jump in! These levels are strong support, and the rebound probability is high!Keep a close eye on on-chain data:
Within an hour after the speech, observe whether there are large transfers from Bitcoin whale addresses (like deposits or withdrawals to exchanges). If whales are dumping, it indicates they are pessimistic about the market; if they are buying the dip, it means they see an opportunity!
At 10 PM tonight, Powell's speech is the 'watershed' for the crypto world—will it be the starting point for a surge or the beginning of a crash?
Are you ready?
(Follow me for real-time interpretations of Powell's speech and seize the opportunities of crypto surges and crashes! Like and bookmark now, let's witness history tonight! #杰克逊霍尔会议
