Bitcoin maintains a weak consolidation, with a temporary rise and then a pullback, waiting for guidance from Chairman Powell's speech?
Jackson Hole provides a significant stage for the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech will certainly attract attention, as he faces a difficult choice between cutting rates and not cutting rates.
We need to pay close attention to whether Chairman Powell can provide clearer signals for a rate cut in September. Secondly, will a new Federal Reserve framework be released to explain issues related to inflation, employment, economic data, etc.?
First, Trump has repeatedly publicly criticized Chairman Powell as 'Mr. Too Late'.
Second, there are factions among Federal Reserve officials regarding whether to cut rates or not.
So, Chairman Powell is under a lot of pressure...
Another key point is whether to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points? If Chairman Powell continues to play Tai Chi, how will the market respond?
As a representative of the hawkish stance, I believe this central bank meeting is merely a transition. It may emphasize or hint at inflation, employment, and the state of the economy, but it will not directly emphasize the rate cut situation. After all, the small non-farm payrolls and non-farm data in September will be key to deciding a rate cut in mid to late September.
For its trends, the rate cut is still brewing, and responding to the market may lead to a rise, followed by pressure and a pullback. Tonight, especially Bitcoin, is likely to fall below the 110,000 mark, with a temporary rise and then a pullback.
Bitcoin is focused on the 114,500-115,000 range, while Ethereum is watching the resistance around 4,400. It's Black Friday again, which might bring unexpected surprises. Are you ready to make your move?
