Brother Hao Talks BTC: Institutional Support + Policy Game, Tonight at 10 PM is Key!

First, let's look at the most concrete institutional actions: BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been very aggressive lately, with a daily inflow of 75 million USD, and holdings directly exceeding 350,000 BTC, making it the world's third-largest BTC holder; Hong Kong Ming Cheng Group is even more direct, spending 483 million USD to buy 4,250 BTC at an average price of 113,700 USD, clearly positioning for a dip, and this attitude from institutions gives the market some confidence.

Next, on the macro front, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has soared to 75%-85%, the key lies in Powell's speech tonight at 10 PM! If he sends dovish signals, such as clarifying the rate cut path, risk assets are likely to rebound, and BTC will definitely benefit; combined with the recent weakening of the dollar, the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped to 4.05%, which lowers the cost of holding BTC, all of which are potential positives.

However, we must also stay clear-headed; the probability of intraday fluctuations is there: a 55% chance of a decline, mainly due to technical overbought conditions and cautious market sentiment; a 45% chance of an increase, relying entirely on policy benefits and institutional support, which is a “wait-and-see” market.

We are now at a critical decision point: if it can stabilize at 112,000 USD, we can bet on a rebound after the speech; if it breaks below 112,000 USD, we must be wary of a pullback to 108,000 USD, at which point don’t hold on stubbornly, just dodge the wind for now.

Finally, let's highlight some key points: try to reduce leverage in operations, and don’t miss Powell’s speech tonight at 10 PM; long-term players should continue to “buy on dips,” and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations. Today's operational guide: short around 113,100-113,500 USD, with a first target at 112,070 USD, and then at 111,600 USD. Especially a reminder, if Powell's speech is hawkish, for instance, suggesting delaying rate cuts, BTC might drop directly below 110,000 USD, so everyone should prepare in advance!