$BTC Evening View:
Talking through the chart: The Bitcoin hourly chart is currently in a range-bound oscillation, with the oscillation range between 114750-112275. It has already broken below the middle line of the range at 113561, which is now the resistance level for Bitcoin. Only by breaking through the middle line of the range at 113561 can we look at the upper boundary of the range at 114750, and then observe the positions indicated by the left-side yellow arrows, which are High One, High Two, and High Three. One must take it step by step, just as one eats rice one bite at a time.
If it cannot break through the middle line of the range and breaks below the lower boundary, then we will look at around 111390. This is also the Fibonacci 1:1 retracement target. If Powell speaks tonight and Bitcoin drops sharply, it may very well reach the pin at the 1.618 position of 109059.
If it truly reaches the pin at 109059 and then returns to operate above 112000, this would represent a 2B false breakdown, and it is worth betting on long positions at the left side, but one must wait until after it breaks and returns before entering long. If it goes down directly and does not return, then do not go long. Pay attention to the 109059 level tonight to see if it can reach that pin.
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For Bitcoin, break out on volume at 113240 for right-side long positions, and if it breaks down on volume at 112808 and cannot recover, then pursue short positions on the right side. Ensure to set stop losses.
For Bitcoin hourly level, if it breaks and stabilizes above 113521, look upwards to 114771-115628; it must stabilize above 113521 to look upwards.
At the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 112626, look downwards to 111909-111358-110567. If 111909 breaks and does not recover, 111358 and 110567 will naturally come.
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Continuing to view the chart: The Bitcoin daily EMA50 moving average has been broken. Fortunately, the closing price of the daily chart this morning did not close below 112000; if it had closed below 112000, it would have been a disaster. Bitcoin cannot stabilize and recover above the EMA50 moving average and does not appear strong unless it can break through both the EMA50 and EMA20 moving averages to return to a strong bullish range.
Currently, the EMA moving averages on the daily chart are not diverging downwards. If Bitcoin does not rally while waiting for the EMA moving averages to all turn downwards, it will be impossible to save it. By then, any rally will be too late; even if one tries to save a dead horse as if it were a live one, it will not be possible. Therefore, one can only continue to look downwards at the EMA200 daily moving average and watch for changes in volume. Meeting adjourned.
