The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreases to 71.3% before Powell's speech

According to data from CME FedWatch, ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole conference tonight, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has fallen to 71.3%, while the likelihood of keeping interest rates at the current level is 28.7%.

Forecasts for October show that the market prices in a 14.6% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 50.4%, and a 50 basis point cut probability of 35.1%.

The next two FOMC meetings will take place on September 17 and October 29.