#杰克逊霍尔会议
There are five hours left until Powell's speech, and it is highly likely to be another storm of blood and gore!! $BTC
According to BiyaPay analysts:
Powell's last speech on Friday could see Bitcoin rise by 20% to 50% if interest rates are cut.
On August 21, according to BiyaPay analysts, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give his final speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this Friday evening Beijing time.
Despite the latest inflation data exceeding expectations, some traders have lowered their interest rate cut forecasts, but the market still expects the Fed to cut rates in September.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen stated that Powell may bring risks to market rate cut expectations, especially with bets on a 50 basis point cut.
Based on historical data, there is no fixed pattern for Bitcoin's performance in the month following Powell's last seven speeches at Jackson Hole, but rate cut cycles often lead to increases. Bitcoin rose by 15%, 20%, and over 50% in 2016, 2019, and 2020, respectively. Especially in the current rate cut cycle, Bitcoin may continue to benefit, attracting more capital inflows.
And I believe, based on Powell's past attitudes and the data he presents in his speeches, that Powell will not make dovish remarks tonight!
Although Trump has exerted his utmost effort to directly urge Powell to cut rates, he has also started to pressure the Fed board members indirectly, yet the effect seems mediocre. The expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased; although we still anticipate a cut of 25 basis points, Powell will still say that decisions will be made based on the published data!!
In fact, regardless of whether dovish remarks are directly released, the market manipulators will take the opportunity to shake out positions, causing some highly leveraged positions to become fuel for the market, so everyone must pay attention to risks and manage their positions well!!!