Over the last two years, Bitcoin has experienced several deep corrections — up to 33%. But each time, the market turned around and continued to grow. Support was provided by large funds and Trump's favorable crypto policies.
Currently, the decline is only 10–15%. Many are waiting for a stronger pullback; however, the market has changed. The main factors have been ETFs and institutional investors, who are mitigating crashes.
In the second half of August, the inflow of capital into ETFs decreased, raising concerns about further declines. Short-term holders began selling at a loss for the first time since January, and purchases by large players like MicroStrategy noticeably decreased — from billions to tens of millions. All of this adds pressure to the price.
After record inflows into ETFs, outflows began: institutions are locking in profits, leading to liquidations. Against this backdrop, retail traders are exiting positions en masse, amplifying the 'snowball effect.'
The SOPR metric indicates a critical zone: either a recovery to $120–130k or a drop to $95–100k. After falling below $113k, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase. The nearest levels are $111k (support) and $120k (resistance).
Many traders are trying to 'catch the bottom' and exit too early, missing out on growth. The optimal strategy remains gradual accumulation through DCA.
