At 10 PM tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
This is also a clear indicator for deciding whether there will be an interest rate cut in September, so everyone is paying attention to this speech.
Let's take a look at the specific data:
According to the "FedWatch Tool": The probability of an interest rate cut in September is 73.5%, while the probability of no rate cut is 26.5%.
Although the probability of a rate cut has decreased compared to before, it still occupies the majority.
Secondly, there aren't many points to analyze regarding Powell's speech, it really comes down to:
· Dovish speech: Favorable for future interest rate cut sentiment, DXY weakens, gold & Bitcoin rise.
· Neutral speech: Mainly volatile, market observation sentiment intensifies, funds will not significantly flow in the short term.
· Hawkish speech: DXY strengthens, gold & Bitcoin decline.
Therefore, it is not recommended to speculate or use high leverage to bet on the speech's market reaction, as this could be exploited by market makers to take advantage of the situation and lead to losses.
