At 10 PM tonight, the eyes of the world will be on Jackson Hole. Powell's words this time may directly determine the direction of the global market for the next month.

Several key points to watch:

① Interest Rate Cut Expectations

What Wall Street is most concerned about is whether Powell will hint that an interest rate cut is really coming in September. Most institutions believe he will continue to be 'ambiguous'—neither confirming nor denying, just emphasizing that 'data will decide.' However, it should be noted that if he deliberately refutes the September rate cut, the market may react violently tonight.

② Policy Framework

Another focus this time is whether the Federal Reserve will abandon the 'flexible average inflation targeting' framework established in 2020. If Powell truly returns to a more traditional 'dual mandate' in his rhetoric, balancing employment and inflation, it suggests that policy may be more flexible and leaves room for future rate cuts.

③ Inflation Concerns

Although CPI has cooled down, inflation in the service sector remains stubborn, PPI is rising again, along with tariff risks. Powell is likely to remind everyone—not to think that the inflation issue is completely resolved, and the market shouldn't get too excited too quickly.

④ Labor Market

Recently, non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised down, and signs of a cooling labor market are becoming more evident. Powell may acknowledge this, but he will also downplay the impact of any single indicator, continuing to emphasize the need for a comprehensive assessment. In other words, he won't change his stance because of one employment report, but the market will definitely focus on the details for interpretation.

⑤ Political Pressure

This point is even more dramatic. Trump and his administration have recently frequently 'named' Powell, even calling for the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook. However, Powell is unlikely to respond to these political noises, instead adopting a posture of 'focusing solely on his job.'

Tonight's speech is unlikely to directly provide the 'passphrase' for an interest rate cut, but the market will look for clues in every word. Don't forget, historically, Jackson Hole has often become a 'turning point' for the global financial market.

Keep a close eye on the market, and don't forget to manage your positions. The real storm often begins with a single speech.