'In '87, starting with 300,000 capital, I experienced liquidations and pitfalls, ultimately climbing to 42 million. It wasn’t luck, nor was it based on 'news'. The core weapon lies in the unwavering 2 hours every day—a system review method capable of continuous 'error correction' and 'evolution'. Today, I will reveal all my hard-earned insights, explaining how professional players survive and win in the brutal battlefield of the crypto world through review.'
Why is reviewing more important than trading time? Because the market changes rapidly, what is understood in the morning may be outdated by evening. Professional players force themselves to take 2 hours out every day: first spend half an hour like a robot recording data (forget about profits and losses! Forget about positions!), then completely empty the mind, clearing all subjective obsessions and emotional anchors from the day. Only then do they re-examine the market with a 'blank slate' and draw open-ended conclusions. I call this process 'Cognitive Reboot'. Countless times, at the end of the evening review, I would strongly negate a certain 'firm' view from the day—this is precisely the key to avoiding large losses and seizing major opportunities!
1. Multi-Dimensional Review System: From 'Pulse' to 'Strategy' (Layered Execution, Efficient and Precise)
Real-Time Review During Trading (Every Hour, <10 Minutes/Session, Efficient Scanning)
Market Pulse Monitoring (Quick Scan):
Volatility Scan: Monitor BTC/ETH 1 Hour ATR Change >5%. Practical Tip: Set ATR% Change Alerts on TradingView, phone vibration reminders, and immediately pause to analyze the reason (Is it breaking news? Key level breakthrough?).
Multi-Exchange Price Spread Alert: Binance/OKX/Bybit Main Contract Premium Suddenly Expands >0.3%? Act Immediately: This may indicate short-term short squeeze or long liquidations, or an arbitrage opportunity! Open the cross-exchange hedge window and prepare.
Liquidation Heatmap Focus: Concentration price levels for liquidations exceeding $5 million on CoinGlass in a single hour. Practical Tip: These price levels are natural 'magnetic zones' where prices are likely to be tested repeatedly. Consider placing orders slightly away from these dense areas to avoid being swept.
Position Emergency Check (Must Do):
Leverage Health Quick Calculation: Mental calculation/tool calculation of what percentage current price retracement would hit your liquidation price? Practical Iron Rule: If a retracement of <2% is dangerous, you must immediately reduce positions or hedge! Don’t be complacent.
Hedging Efficiency Quick Check: Funding rates of perpetual contracts vs. spot price spreads. Arbitrage Opportunity? When absolute value of rate >0.1% and direction is favorable, consider opening an arbitrage position (e.g., positive and high rate, long spot + short contract).
End-of-Day Deep Review (1-2 Hours Daily, Golden Time)
Three-Dimensional Order Flow Analysis (Core): Not only look at price candlesticks, but also look at:
Volume Distribution: Where is the volume? Is it a real breakout or a trap? (Use Volume Profile tool)
Large Order Flow (L2 Data/Time & Sales): Is the key position dominated by market orders (active buying/selling) or limit orders (passive transactions)? Practical Tip: Pay attention to large market orders appearing consecutively near key support/resistance levels, which often signal a trend change.
Key Decision Audit (Core Error Correction):
Opening and Closing Trigger Comparison: Planned technical levels (e.g., EMA50, Fibonacci) VS Actual Execution Levels. Deviation >0.5%? Must be logged as an error: Was it a slip? FOMO? Or was there a problem with the plan itself?
Slippage Cost Statistics: For orders > 10BTC, how much is the actual execution average price different from the expected price? Practical Optimization: Break large orders into smaller ones + use iceberg orders/TWAP strategy to significantly reduce slippage. Record slippage costs each time and review the total at the end of the month, it's shocking!
Sentiment Thermometer (Contrarian Indicator):
Extreme Long/Short Ratio: Deribit Positions PCR<0.7 (Extreme Greed) or >1.3 (Extreme Fear). Practical Strategy: When PCR is extremely deviated, combined with price position, the success rate of contrarian operations is higher (but strict stop-loss is required!).
Greed and Fear Index Verification: When the index >75 or <25, definitely check the candlestick patterns! Is it a top selling pattern (long upper shadow, dark cloud cover)? Or a bottom panic pattern (long lower shadow, hammer candlestick)? Sentiment indicators must be validated against price!
Weekly Strategic Review (3-4 Hours Weekly, Set Direction)
Macroeconomic Factor Reassessment (Look Up to the Sky):
Federal Reserve Rate Expectations: CME FedWatch Tool Probability Change >20%? This usually triggers significant volatility! Practical Relation: Rate expectations turning dovish -> Positive for risk assets (especially altcoins); turning hawkish -> Negative.
Stablecoin Battlefield: Weekly Changes ±1% in Total Supply of USDT/USDC is an Important Liquidity Signal. Continuous Net Increase? Potential Incremental Funds; Continuous Net Decrease? Beware of Liquidity Contraction. Practical Tip: Pay attention to Circle's (USDC issuer) monthly reserve reports, especially the maturity structure and credit ratings of government bond holdings.
Sector Rotation Map (Capital Flow):
Quantitative Analysis: Use CoinGecko or TradingView sector indices to calculate the relative strength of DeFi, AI, Meme, Layer2, etc., over the past week. Practical Strategy: Sectors with continuous inflows of capital are the focus for next week; sectors with continuous outflows should be avoided in the short term.
Risk Event Tracing (Learn from Failures):
Deep Attribution: For instance, 'Wednesday's Crash', it’s not just 'Coinbase crashed + GBTC outflows', but delve deeper: How long was the downtime? How many users were affected? Is GBTC outflow normal or abnormal? Were there any other chain reactions (such as liquidation on lending platforms)? Build your own 'Black Swan Event Library' and summarize response templates.
2. Crypto-Specific Review Toolkit: Armed to the Teeth
On-Chain Scout (Insights into Whales and Network Status):
Glassnode Alerts (Must Set): NUPL > 0.6 (Market enters 'Greed' profit zone, beware of pullbacks) or aSOPR < 1 (Market overall loss, possibly nearing a local bottom). Practical Settings: Email + mobile push notifications for immediate response.
Nansen Smart Money Tracking (Following the Big Players): Record the largest/most directional operations (which coin bought/sold? Magnitude?) marked as 'Smart Money' or 'Whale' addresses this week. Practical Tip: Pay attention to whether their operations diverge from price trends (Whales buy and price drops? Sell and price rises? Worth pondering).
Derivatives Diagnostic Tool (Insights into Market Structure and Leverage):
Deribit Skew Index & Maturity Structure: When a significant inversion occurs (near month lower than far month), take a screenshot! This often indicates strong bearish sentiment in the short term. Combining with PCR extreme values yields better results.
Open Interest (OI) Spike Alert: OI daily increase >15%, especially at key price levels (e.g., previous highs/lows, round numbers). This usually indicates that a new trend may start or an existing trend accelerates! Highlight the price at which it occurred.
Sentiment Compass (Capture Market FOMO/FUD):
Twitter Sentiment Hot Word Monitoring: Use TradingView Pine Script or third-party tools to monitor keywords like 'FUD', 'BTFD', 'Rug Pull', 'Moon' in specific coins or major market-related tweets for frequency and trend changes. Practical Relation: A surge in 'FUD' without a significant price drop -> Possible oversold rebound opportunity; A flood of 'Moon' at high prices with stagnation -> Danger signal!
Google Trends Verification: Search for terms like 'Cryptocurrency crash', observe sudden peaks in regional search volume, and compare with price trends at that time. Practical Insight: Peak search volume lagging behind price lows often indicates retail panic selling, possibly nearing a short-term bottom.
3. Cognitive Upgrade Closed-Loop System: Alchemy from Mistakes
4. In-Depth Case Studies: Review and Evolution During the March 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Crisis
Data Capture (Key Signals at the Time):
On-Chain Evidence: Arkham data shows a net outflow of over $4.2 billion in USDC in one day (panic redemption).
Price Spread Collapse: USDC/USDT off-exchange trading once deepened to a discount of -8% (credit instantly collapsed).
Chain Reaction: DAI (with USDC as a major reserve) experienced a discount of 0.98; lending platforms (like Aave) saw USDC pool utilization soar, interest rates skyrocketed.
Decision Backtracking (Gains and Losses):
Correct: Keenly captured DAI's 0.98 discount, decisively bought DAI on DEX (equivalent to 0.98 USDC cost), while selling/repaying debt at 1:1 value on supporting CEX (or within the protocol), achieving nearly 2% risk-free arbitrage. Key: Understanding the stablecoin mechanism and arbitrage path.
Major Mistake: Failed to set stablecoin exchange limit orders in advance! When USDC plummeted, manual operations encountered huge slippage and delays, missing the best arbitrage opportunity, with significant losses on some exchanges.
Strategy Optimization (Rules Learned from Hard Lessons):
Automated Arbitrage Trigger: Write scripts to monitor stablecoin price spreads on major DEX and CEX (USDC/USDT, DAI/USDC, etc.). When off-exchange discounts >3%, automatically execute preset cross-exchange/DEX arbitrage operations (consider gas costs and execution risks). Practical Tools: Learn to use Python (ccxt library) or paid automation tools.
Establish 'Stablecoin Issuer Risk Dashboard': Continuously monitor:
The maturity structure of U.S. government bonds held by Circle (Are they mostly short-term? Avoid interest rate risk).
Credit ratings of government bonds and custodian information.
Frequency and transparency of reserve report releases.
Associated Bank Risks: Establish simple financial health monitoring for major banks (especially those partnered with Circle) (Stock price volatility? CDS spreads widening? News sentiment).
5. Self-Discipline Management Tips: Assurance for Sustainable Review
Golden Rule of Energy Allocation:
Intra-Day Review ≤ 20% of Total Daily Trading Time! Beware of 'Analysis Paralysis', the core during trading is executing plans and risk control. Deep thinking should be left for the end of the day.
Physical Disconnection Method: Use kitchen timers/mobile focus mode to strictly limit daily review duration (e.g., 2 hours). When time's up, stop immediately! Avoid getting lost in endless details.
Data De-Sensitization Training (Counteracting Result Bias):
Choose one day each week for 'Blind Review': Hide profit/loss columns in review software/spreadsheets. Analyze and judge independently based only on prices, indicators, on-chain data, and news, then write down conclusions. Later, compare with actual profits/losses to see if results influenced objective analysis. The effect is astonishing!
Cross-Market Verification (Broaden Perspectives):
Monthly Must-Course: Compare changes in volatility (VIX) of Gold (GC) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) with BTC volatility. Practical Insight: When traditional market volatility (VIX) surges while BTC volatility remains relatively low, beware of risk spillover; when BTC volatility independently surges, it may harbor independent market opportunities. Pay attention to changes in correlation coefficients.
Top Traders' Review Creed:
The core of the review is not tirelessly searching for the next get-rich-quick code, but ruthlessly eliminating one after another source of loss in your account. When you open the error log and find that there have been no new entries for three consecutive weeks, congratulations, that is the true moment of transformation and advancement.
Old bloggers only do real trading, the team still has positions available, hurry up to join $ETH
