At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver his last speech during his term at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. Cryptocurrency players are holding their breath, as three core signals may ignite a new wave for Bitcoin!
Signal One: Is a September rate cut a certainty?
The current market bets that there is over a 75% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but recent inflation data has been volatile, and officials have made 'hawkish' statements, causing rate cut expectations to fluctuate. If Powell clearly signals a rate cut, Bitcoin will benefit from two favorable conditions: low interest rates reduce cash returns, driving funds into high-risk assets; a weaker dollar reinforces Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute.
Signal Two: Changes in policy framework, could the inflation target regime come to an end?
Powell may abolish the 'average inflation targeting' and revert to a '2% single target'.
Signal Three: The 'shadow' of Trump looms, the cryptocurrency space becomes a battleground
Trump has recently ramped up the tariff war and repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve for 'missing the economic mark', with his core demand being to force a rate cut to counter inflation.
The market bets that if there is no rate cut in September, Trump may nominate a more dovish chairman or even push for legislation to weaken the Federal Reserve. This political bet is translating into optimistic sentiment in the crypto space; the more the Federal Reserve resists, the more Bitcoin's 'anti-fiat' value is highlighted.
Exclusive Insight from Tege:
Short-term focus on keywords like 'rate cut', 'inflation target', and 'independence'; favorable conditions may allow for positioning in mainstream coins;
Long-term attention to the impact of policy framework on long-term rates;
Swing traders should be cautious of 'buying the expectation and selling the fact' market trends, and set profit-taking and stop-loss orders.
At 22:00 tonight, every word from Powell will be magnified and interpreted by the cryptocurrency community. At this sensitive moment of power transition in the Federal Reserve, cryptocurrencies are no longer marginal assets but the core battleground of global financial competition. Cryptocurrency players, are you ready to embrace this historic moment?
