In just one week, market sentiment around XRP has changed dramatically. Last week, the 'XRP Army' community was thrilled as this token just broke its all-time high with a price of $3.65 – a milestone they had waited 8 long years for. But now, the picture has become much gloomier.
From 66% Chance of 'Moon' Down to Only 51%
According to data from Myriad – a market prediction platform developed by Decrypt's parent company – last week, the chance of XRP reaching the $4 mark was set at 66%. Now, this number has dropped to 51%, with the 'doom' scenario of falling to $2 rising to 49%. Notably, just one day prior, the bears held a 61% advantage for the deep decline scenario. This rapid reversal clearly reflects the market's tumultuous sentiment.
XRP Price: Concerning Breakout Signs
Today's trading session shows a clear failure at the $3 level. XRP opened at $2.9507, attempted to break through $3 but was quickly sold off, falling to a low of $2.8735 before slightly recovering to $2.8963 – down 1.84% for the day. Failing to hold the $3 mark shakes the 'moon' confidence severely.
On the technical chart, the most concerning signal is that the price has broken below the 50-day EMA average. Although it has not triggered automatic sell orders from algorithms, if the 50-day EMA becomes a resistance level, reclaiming $3 and reaching $4 will be harder than ever. Conversely, the $2 mark is still above the 200-day EMA – meaning the deep downtrend has not been confirmed, but the possibility remains, especially as September has historically been a 'red month' for XRP since the July peak.
RSI and ADX: Bearish Momentum is Stronging
The relative strength index (RSI) of XRP is currently at 43 – below the neutral threshold of 50 and under the warning level of 45, signaling that selling pressure is prevailing. Meanwhile, the ADX index – a measure of trend strength – has dropped to 23, below the important threshold of 25, indicating that the market is losing a clear trend and falling into a state of 'dangerous sideways'.
Two Clear Scenarios Ahead: Moon or Doom?
Moon ($4 – Green):
Near resistance: $3.00 (psychological and old support)
Important resistance: $3.30 (breakout point of the descending triangle pattern)
Condition: Need to break above $3 with high volume, then confirm the $3.30 area. Otherwise, the $4 target is just a slim hope.
Doom ($2 – Red):
First support: $2.50 (psychological)
Important support: $2.30 (previous accumulation area)
If $2.50 is broken, the possibility of falling straight to $2 is entirely plausible.
Market Sentiment: From Extreme Euphoria to Fragile Balance
Just a few days, the odds of 66% for 'moon' dropped to nearly 50-50, clearly reflecting the decline in investor confidence. With technical indicators leaning towards the bears, the risk of a deeper correction is hard to ignore.
In summary, XRP is not necessarily 'dead', but the road back to its peaks will be fraught with difficulties. While the bulls need a strong push to turn the tide, the bears only need another round of selling to push XRP into the 'doom' zone. At this moment, caution and closely monitoring price action is mandatory for any investor.
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