On August 22, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $112,450 and still struggled to break through the $114,000 resistance. On-chain signals indicate weakness in the uptrend, reminiscent of the familiar scenario that often occurs in the late stage of a market cycle.
Bitcoin Approaches Cycle Peak
In the past three years, Bitcoin has had a spectacular breakout, rising up to 700% from the cycle low of $15,500 in November 2022 to set a new record of $124,500 last week.
According to market data analysis firm Glassnode, compared to previous cycles, the current uptrend suggests that Bitcoin may be only 2–3 months away from the cycle peak. In the latest Week On-chain report, Glassnode wrote:
“In both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the historical peak appeared 2–3 months later than the point we are currently at in the present cycle, considering the aspect of relative time.”
As of August 22, about 91% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit. Notably, this ratio has remained above the +1 standard deviation band for 273 consecutive days — the second longest period in history, only after the 335-day period of the 2015–2018 cycle. This indicates that the current cycle reflects similarities in length and characteristics with past periods that signaled previous cycle peaks.
At the same time, the on-chain profit-taking wave that has lasted for the past two years also reinforces the similarity with previous cycle peaks. Glassnode points out that, when analyzing accumulated profit (measured in BTC) that long-term holders (LTHs) — those who have held for at least 155 days — have realized from the new peak to the final peak of the cycle, the current profit taking is even higher than in previous cycles.
This indicates that LTHs are increasingly selling off, reflecting the state of “extreme euphoria” that often occurs in the later stages of cycles. Glassnode commented:
“Aggregating the signals, it can be seen that the current cycle has entered the final stage.”
In agreement, renowned analyst Rekt Capital predicts that if Bitcoin continues to follow the trajectory of historical halving cycles, the cycle peak is likely to occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
“That means we are only 1–2 months away.”
Bitcoin Price Rejected at $114,000
On August 20, Bitcoin surged strongly from the support zone of $112,000 but was quickly halted at the resistance level of $114,000, raising concerns about the possibility of a deeper correction.
According to expert Rekt Capital, “$114,000 needs to be clearly broken for the downtrend to be confirmed. A weekly candle close below this level will be decisive.”
Below, the $112,000–$110,000 zone has yet to be tested in the latest drop, coinciding with the 100-day simple moving average – a technical factor that could play a crucial support role.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that if Bitcoin continues to correct, this area could become a “great buying opportunity” for long-term investors.
However, in the short term, the bulls must firmly defend the $110,000–$112,000 zone. If they fail, the price risks dropping to the $100,000–$90,000 range, according to a warning from Daan Crypto Trades: “If it goes lower, the market structure will start to become quite fragile.”
