8.22 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good morning, brothers. BTC is consolidating around $113,000. The reason why the big players are washing the market during this period, and some large holders are cutting losses, is that they are waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. Some say there will be no rate cuts, while others say they are about to begin; there is a divergence in the market. Once new signals appear, large capital will start to strategize based on the situation.

Currently, the global market is awaiting a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 22:00 tonight, and market fluctuations are expected to be significant. The market will judge from Powell's speech whether interest rate cuts will begin in September and whether high rates will be maintained.

As we all know, Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to be more accommodative to support economic growth. Candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman are also calling for interest rate cuts, but current officials have remained non-committal.

Huang Licheng currently holds long positions worth $140 million, with an unrealized loss of $9.81 million. The fact that these big players are starting to lose money or face liquidation indicates that a market reversal is imminent.

Three scenarios tonight:

(1) If Powell sends a clear signal for a rate cut in September, it will be bullish and signal the start of a counterattack, with a 20% probability.

(2) If Powell states that it is not yet appropriate to cut rates but subtly hints that a cut may be forthcoming, it will also be bullish, with a 50% probability.

(3) If Powell refuses to release any expectations for rate cuts, or even reinforces a hawkish stance, the market may drop again, with a 30% probability.

Rationally speaking, it is better to wait and see; if trading in spot markets, consider averaging down in phases. For contracts, only enter spike trades in anticipation of a market reversal.

Long Ge's analysis is merely for reference; adults must take responsibility for their decisions. Investing carries risks; please use spare funds for investment and think independently!