In recent days, Bitcoin has fallen from its historical high of $124,000, and many immediately began to shout 'the end of the bull market'. Media, commentators, and even some investors have once again fallen into panic and doubt: Is this the bears' victory? Can Bitcoin not deliver on its promises?

But these voices are mostly just noise. 📉

Both data and historical patterns tell us—the bull market is far from over.

1⃣ Bull Market Peak Indicator: One Not Triggered

CoinGlass has tracked 30 Bitcoin bull market peak signals, and none have been touched so far.

In other words, how could the bull market possibly end without any market top signals appearing?

2⃣ Seasonal Cooldown in August-September

Bitcoin's historical trends are also quite interesting:

In the bull markets of 2013, 2017, and 2021, July and August mostly saw rises, but September often experienced a pullback, followed by a new wave of surges in October and November.

Investor Yannick Maurer pointed out that this year is very likely to replicate this rhythm: a pullback in September, followed by a 20%-30% rise in October and November.

3⃣ RSI Indicator: Short-term Oversold

Analyst Frank Fetter reminds us that Bitcoin has currently entered the 'oversold zone' on the RSI (Relative Strength Index).

Historical experience shows that short-term pullbacks are the norm during bull markets:

In the past, there have even been 30% deep declines.

Currently, more of a 5%-15% fluctuation.

These declines are often not the end of a bull market but rather a healthy 'shuffle', clearing out excessive leverage and building momentum for future increases.

4⃣ Market Sentiment Dashboard: Neutral to Cool

Fetter's market dashboard shows that four key indicators are in the neutral to cooling range. This means the market is not out of control, but rather creating a more robust environment for the next upward movement.

5⃣ Long-term Holders' Confidence is Sky-high

Fidelity's Chris Kuiper provided a set of intriguing data:

After the halving in 2024, the stock of BTC held for more than 10 years is growing faster than the new mining output for the first time.

Every day, about 566 BTC enter 'HODL' long-term holdings, while new production is only 450 BTC.

This indicates that the confidence of long-term Bitcoin holders is stronger than ever, with more concentrated holdings.

🔑 Conclusion

Bitcoin is experiencing a seasonal cooldown, not the end of a bull market.

Historical patterns are validating this point.

Data indicators are validating this point.

On-chain holders' confidence is also validating this.

Therefore, rather than being scared off by short-term fluctuations, it's better to take a longer-term perspective. After all, for an asset with a 10-year compound annual growth rate of over 85%, these small pullbacks are almost negligible.

📌 The real climax may not come until October and November.