The Ethereum market is at a delicate crossroads. Last night's price action was like a silent struggle, with both bulls and bears exchanging blows within the 4200-4260 USD range, ultimately closing with a slight increase of only 0.16%. Behind this narrow fluctuation is the market waiting for clearer directional signals.
The technical aspect shows a contradictory situation:
The 15-minute MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating positive short-term momentum.
The RSI indicator remains above 50 but has not reached the overbought zone.
The 1-hour Bollinger Bands are opening wider, and the medium-term trend still leans bullish.
Tonight, the market will face two key variables:
Federal Reserve policy barometer
Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting will be the focus of the market. If it releases dovish signals, it could push Ethereum to break through the 4300 USD resistance; if the attitude is ambiguous, the market may continue its oscillating pattern.
US stock market linkage effect
Recently, Ethereum's correlation with the Nasdaq index has reached 0.8. The performance of tech stocks will directly impact Ethereum's trajectory, and investors need to closely monitor US stock dynamics.
If US stocks continue to fall, ETH may test the 4220 support level, or even dip to 4200-4060—at this point, don't panic, 4060 is a 'iron bottom' at the daily level, the probability of breaking below it is lower than winning the lottery. Operation suggestion: short-term 'scalp', medium-term 'wait for the wind to come'.
1. Short-term players
Range high sell low buy: 'shear sheep' back and forth between 4200-4280 USD, if it breaks 4280, can cautiously chase long;
Key signal: If the 1-hour RSI breaks 60 and stabilizes above 4260, directly look for 4300; if it falls below 4200, run away quickly.
2. Medium to long-term players
Wait for Powell to 'fire the starting gun': If he clearly signals a rate cut and ETH breaks through 4300 with volume, directly position for a medium-term bullish trend;
Risk control: Strict stop-loss, don’t let 'small losses' turn into 'big holes'. Risk alert: The Federal Reserve and geopolitical events are the 'time bombs' of the crypto market.
Federal Reserve policy: Rate cut expectations are 'honey', but if it suddenly turns 'hawkish', ETH could plummet by 20%+;
Geopolitical conflict: The situation in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will trigger market risk aversion, with crypto assets being the first to be affected.
Finally, let's be honest: The crypto market has no 'sure wins', only 'surviving longer by controlling risks'. Want to follow my real-time tracking and catch trends? Follow @船长大哥 to navigate the 'crypto roller coaster'!
